Revised Daily S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 06-15-21

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the updated daily Elliott wave count since the bull run that began on 03/23/20. The  log scale and daily RSI shows the weakness of  the supposed Intermediate wave (5).  Price is struggling to rise and appears to be near the point of collapse.  NoteContinue reading “Revised Daily S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 06-15-21”

Ninety Nine Percent Retracement

On 05/07/21 the S&P 500 (SPX)  reached its all-time 4238.04.  Today 06/09/21 the SPX high was 4237.09 a 99.4% retracement of the post 05/07/21 decline.  Additionally, the SPX may have completed an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) from the bottom made on 05/12/21. The hourly SPX  chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates theContinue reading “Ninety Nine Percent Retracement”

Broad Stock Market Top?

Stock markets are ruled by the forces of optimism and pessimism, some would say hope and fear.  Pessimism/fear is more intense which is why stocks and stock markets generally fall faster than they rise. Intensity also creates distinctive bottoms, the March 23, 2020, bottom is a perfect example, the vast majority of US stock indicesContinue reading “Broad Stock Market Top?”

Bitcoin Horizontal Triangle

The 05/30/21 blog “The Quiet Before the Storm” illustrated two Elliott wave counts for Bitcoin in US dollars (BTCUSD). It now appears the alternate wave count is forming and the BTCUSD 05/19/21 bottom was Minor wave “3”. The subsequent Minor wave “4” correction looks like a developing an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle.  The dailyContinue reading “Bitcoin Horizontal Triangle”

Ninety Seven Percent Retracement

Just after the open on 06/01/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) reached 4234.12 which is a 97.8% retracement of the decline from 4238.04 to 4056.88.  The maximum retracement of the supposed  impulse wave down from 4238.04 is 99.9%, in Elliott wave rules a 100% retracement would eliminate the bearish wave count.  The 30-minute SPX chart courtesyContinue reading “Ninety Seven Percent Retracement”

The Quiet Before the Storm?

During the prior three trading days the three main US stock indices slowly climbed higher and have remained below their all-time highs.  Most likely this is  the first rally within a developing bear market.  The trigger for the next stock market drop could come from the Bitcoin market. The daily Bitcoin in US dollars (BTCUSD)Continue reading “The Quiet Before the Storm?”

Continuing Counter Trend Rally

Recently one of my friends who also analyzes the markets asked me; what was the maximum retracement for Elliott second waves.  My answer was 99.9%.  Wave “twos” generally have deep retracements, the most common Fibonacci level is .618.  Sometimes wave “two’s” can have shallow retracements – there’re  in the minority.   The reason wave “twos”Continue reading “Continuing Counter Trend Rally”

Entering the Bearish Season

The US stock market is seasonally bullish from November into late April/early May. From 2009 to 2020 the S&P 500 (SPX) recorded five intermediate peaks in the late April/early May time zone.  The SPX 2021 high was on 05/07/21. The  Dow Jones Industrial Average  peak was 05/10/21. The subsequent smooth and steady decline appears toContinue reading “Entering the Bearish Season”