Top For US Stocks Could be in Place

The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to have completed an Elliott impulse wave up from the important 10/30/20 bottom at 3233.94.  If so, we could expect to see at least a retracement of the movement from 10/30/20 to 01/08/21. If this bull movement is a wave “one” the most likely retracement for wave “two” is aContinue reading “Top For US Stocks Could be in Place”

Long-Term Price and Time Targets

The following monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chart courtesy of Trading View  is an update to the monthly DJI chart illustrated in the 08/22/20 post “Forecast – Bull Market Termination Date – 2021” The time forecast is based upon the Fibonacci sequence which is ( 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34,Continue reading “Long-Term Price and Time Targets”

Early January Sentiment and Momentum Signals

The 01/06/21 post “S&P 500 Target Reached- Take Profits and Go Short” noted that evidence from three market dimensions, price, time, and momentum indicated at least a short-term US stock market peak could be developing.  Now, evidence from the sentiment dimension bolsters the probably of an approaching decline. Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility IndexContinue reading “Early January Sentiment and Momentum Signals”

S&P 500 Target Reached – Take Profits and Go Short

From  March 2009 to January 2010 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a growth rate of 72.5%. Projecting that portion of the secular bull market kickoff phase to the supposed termination phase that began in March 2020 targeted SPX 3781. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates bearish momentum divergences. Today 01/06/21 the SPXContinue reading “S&P 500 Target Reached – Take Profits and Go Short”

The Message of Zoom’s Underperformance

Throughout most of 2020 Zoom Video Communications Inc. (ZM) had outperform the US stock market. Its spectacular upside performance made it not only a market leader but also a star of the bull run.  That situation change after 10/19/20 which was the all-time high for ZM.  The first ZM post was on 10/15/20 “Additional ElliottContinue reading “The Message of Zoom’s Underperformance”

Dow Jones Industrial Average Ninety – Year View

The 12/06/20 post “Strongest Rally of the Bull Market” focused on a ten – year view of the S&P 500 (SPX) noting that the rally from March 2020 was stronger than the kickoff rally that began in March 2009.  A  longer-term perspective is needed  to understand the power of the current US stock rally. TheContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial Average Ninety – Year View”

History of January Stock Market Tops

Occasionally stock market turns come at the cusp of a new year.  Sometimes like in late 2018 the turn could be a  bottom. Usually, the turns come at a top.  The main reason is tax deferment.  Fund managers and individuals with unrealized stock gains sell early in the new year  deferring  the taxes on theContinue reading “History of January Stock Market Tops”

US Stocks Topping in Early January 2021?

Evidence is developing that the US stock market could have at least a short-term top or possibly a major peak in early January 2021. The 12/06/20 post “Strongest Rally of the Bull Market”  compared the current stock rally from 03/23/20 with the 2009 to 2010 kickoff phase of the secular bull market.  A closer examinationContinue reading “US Stocks Topping in Early January 2021?”