A multi-month rally in U.S. interest rates may have begun. The 05/16/26 blog “Long – Term Yields Near Major Double Top” noted that U.S. Treasury 30- year bond yields (TYX) were close to moving above a double top at 5.15 made in October 2023 and May 2025. On 05/19/26 TYX broke above 5.15, reaching 5.20. Continue reading “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – August 2026”
Category Archives: Momentum
Buying the Dips
Late in the 07/29/26 trading session U.S. stocks had a sharp and deep decline. On 07/30/26 bulls relentlessly pushed stock indices higher. Early in the 07/31/26 main session stocks peaked then had another sharp drop. It looked like the bears had taken control, yet before the first hour of the session was complete bulls beganContinue reading “Buying the Dips”
The New Leader for U.S. Stocks?
In recent weeks Financial stocks have been the most bullish U.S. stock market sector. This rally could be the last gasp of a dying bull market. The daily charts of State Street – Financial Sector (XLF) and State Street – Technology Sector (XLK) courtesy of Trading View illustrate their relationship. Technologies have been the trueContinue reading “The New Leader for U.S. Stocks?”
Conflicting Momentum Indicators – July 2026
As we enter mid – July 2026 two U.S. stock market momentum indicators are giving conflicting messages. First a look at the Advance/Decline (A/D) line which has a long history of forecasting significant U.S. stock market turns. The A/D line peaks prior to stock index ultimate peaks, creating a bearish divergence. At significant bottoms theContinue reading “Conflicting Momentum Indicators – July 2026”
Weak Trendline Breakthrough – 07/10/26
The prior blog “Prelude to New Highs? – July 2026” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) since 06/02/26 may have formed an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. As of 07/09/26 SPX was at the edge of a declining trendline from the 06/15/26 peak. The break above this trendline on 07/10/26 should have triggered a powerfulContinue reading “Weak Trendline Breakthrough – 07/10/26”
The Lonely Dow Jones Industrial Average – July 2026
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) continues to be the only main U.S. stock indices making all-time highs. The daily chart of DJI, S&P 500 (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) courtesy of Trading View updates the action of the three main U.S. stock indices. When only one of the three main U.S. stock indices isContinue reading “The Lonely Dow Jones Industrial Average – July 2026”
Elements of a Stock Market Mania
An examination of two stocks participating in the AI and technology mania reveals fascinating data. The first is Micron Technology Inc. (MU) which was last illustrated in the 05/30/26 blog “Micron Technology Inc. Upside Target”. The weekly MU chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. There are always alternate Elliott wave counts. The 05/30/26Continue reading “Elements of a Stock Market Mania”
Advance/Decline Lines at New Highs – June 2026
On 06/26/26 both the NYSE Composite Advance/Decline line and the S&P 500 Advance/Decline line made new all-time highs. This factor implies more upside action for both stock indices. The daily NYSE Composite Advance/Decline line ($NYAD) courtesy of StockCharts.com illustrates its action over the last six months. The pattern of the line for six months isContinue reading “Advance/Decline Lines at New Highs – June 2026”
Long – Term U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – June 2026
The Market Vane Bullish Consensus is a contrarian sentiment indicator that tracks the buy and sell recommendations of market professionals. High percentage readings come near bull market peaks, low readings near bottoms. For the S&P 500 readings, over 65% generally indicate a peak could be forming, 35% or lower signal an approaching bottom. Bullish consensusContinue reading “Long – Term U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – June 2026”
Sector Analysis of the S&P 500 – June 2026
State Street Investment Management has Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) focusing on eleven – S&P 500 (SPX) sectors. An examination of six sectors reveals fascinating momentum data for the broader U.S. stock market. Daily charts courtesy of Trading View examines the three most bullish sectors; Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), and Technology (XLK). On 06/18/26 only oneContinue reading “Sector Analysis of the S&P 500 – June 2026”
Four Dimension Trading 