Momentum – Four Dimension Trading

Slow Rollover of U.S. Stocks – August 2026

Since the S&P 500 (SPX) reached a solo all-time high on 08/13/26, U.S. stocks have gradually and quietly declined. This could be the start of a much larger drop. The daily SPX chart courtesy of StockCharts.com illustrates external momentum. Daily Slow Stochastic had a bearish line cross in the overbought zone and has now crossedContinue reading “Slow Rollover of U.S. Stocks – August 2026”

Crude Oil Near-Term Target – 95.00

Momentum and Elliott wave structure imply Crude Oil could reach 95.00 in early September 2026. The daily continuous Crude Oil futures (CL2!) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its action. From an Elliott wave perspective, the important area to focus on is what happened after the 07/02/26 bottom at 67.12. Please note that after theContinue reading “Crude Oil Near-Term Target – 95.00”

The Leading U.S. Stock Index?

On 08/14/26 none of the three main U.S. stock indices; S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, or Nasdaq Composite made new all-time highs. However, the small cap index – Russell 2000 (RUT) made a new all-time high. Is this this a sign of more upside action or the bulls last gasp? The daily RUT chartContinue reading “The Leading U.S. Stock Index?”

Watching for a Single Top – Part- Two

The 08/08/26 blog “Watching for a Single Top – August 2026” noted. “Since January 2000 almost all the major U.S. stock market peaks have occurred with only one of the three main U.S. stock indices making an all-time high. The three main indices are S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and Nasdaq CompositeContinue reading “Watching for a Single Top – Part- Two”

Record of Diminishing Fear- Part -Two

The 06/08/26 blog “Record of Diminishing Fear” illustrated that since 2020 – S&P 500 (SPX) bear moves have gotten progressively smaller. This amazing phenomenon has continued as shown in the monthly SPX chart courtesy of Trading view. In early June 2026 it looked like the April 2026 decline of only 9.8% was the smallest possibleContinue reading “Record of Diminishing Fear- Part -Two”

Watching for a Single Top – August 2026

Since January 2000 almost all the major U.S. stock market peaks have occurred with only one of the three main U.S. stock indices making an all-time high. The three main indices are S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC). The only exception occurred at the February 2020 peak when bothContinue reading ” Watching for a Single Top – August 2026″

Rising U.S. Interest Rates – August 2026

A multi-month rally in U.S. interest rates may have begun. The 05/16/26 blog “Long – Term Yields Near Major Double Top” noted that U.S. Treasury 30- year bond yields (TYX) were close to moving above a double top at 5.15 made in October 2023 and May 2025. On 05/19/26 TYX broke above 5.15, reaching 5.20. Continue reading “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – August 2026”

Buying the Dips

Late in the 07/29/26 trading session U.S. stocks had a sharp and deep decline. On 07/30/26 bulls relentlessly pushed stock indices higher. Early in the 07/31/26 main session stocks peaked then had another sharp drop. It looked like the bears had taken control, yet before the first hour of the session was complete bulls beganContinue reading “Buying the Dips”

The New Leader for U.S. Stocks?

In recent weeks Financial stocks have been the most bullish U.S. stock market sector. This rally could be the last gasp of a dying bull market. The daily charts of State Street – Financial Sector (XLF) and State Street – Technology Sector (XLK) courtesy of Trading View illustrate their relationship. Technologies have been the trueContinue reading “The New Leader for U.S. Stocks?”

Conflicting Momentum Indicators – July 2026

As we enter mid – July 2026 two U.S. stock market momentum indicators are giving conflicting messages. First a look at the Advance/Decline (A/D) line which has a long history of forecasting significant U.S. stock market turns. The A/D line peaks prior to stock index ultimate peaks, creating a bearish divergence. At significant bottoms theContinue reading “Conflicting Momentum Indicators – July 2026”