Elliott Wave – Alternate Bearish Interpretation –09/23/22

The 07/21/22 blog “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 07/21/22” noted that the 2022 US stock market decline was taking a complex pattern similar to the 2000 to 2002 bear market.  The January to June 2022 S&P 500 (SPX) drop was a complex and choppy pattern.  The Elliott wave guideline for alternation among  wavesContinue reading Elliott Wave – Alternate Bearish Interpretation –09/23/22

Bullish Break Out – 07/20/22

Today 07/20/22, the S&P 500 (SPX) broke above resistance created by a double top made on 06/10/22 at 3943.17 and 06/28/22 at 3945.86.  The SPX high on 07/20/22 was 3974.13 and 30.96 points above the 06/28/22 peak.  When the SPX broke above the 06/10/22 top on 06/28/22 it was only able to exceed the priorContinue reading “Bullish Break Out – 07/20/22”

Crude Oil Trading Range

Since March 2022 Crude Oil has been in a trading range between 126.00 and 92.00. Momentum signals and seasonal patterns suggest a new uptrend may have begun. The daily Crude Oil chart – (CL2!) – continuous next futures contract in front – courtesy of Trading  View illustrates  the trading range. First note the double bottomContinue reading “Crude Oil Trading Range”

  Dow Jones Industrial Average  Long – Term Time Forecast

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) major peak in January 2000  the two subsequent bear and bull markets  have had Fibonacci time ratio  relationships.  Assuming the January 2022 DJI top holds, these Fibonacci ratio relationships  could  project when the current bear market ends. The Fibonacci sequence is as  follows (1, 1, 2, 3, 5,Continue reading ”  Dow Jones Industrial Average  Long – Term Time Forecast”

  Forecast for a Short – Term Bottom

On 06/10/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) – daily MACD had a bearish lines cross over below the zero line. This is a rare event, the last time it  happened was on 12/17/18, that occurrence could help to discover a short-term bottom for the current SPX  decline. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustratesContinue reading ”  Forecast for a Short – Term Bottom”

Fibonacci Price and Time Connections

It’s possible that the S&P 500 (SPX) decline since the start of 2022 is  the fourth Primary degree wave of a  five – wave Elliott  impulse pattern that began in March 2009.  This theory was examined in the 02/27/22 blog “S&P 500 Long – Term Elliott Wave Count – 02-25-22”.   The SPX April to JuneContinue reading “Fibonacci Price and Time Connections”

Possible Lunar Phase Signal

The 04/13/22 blog “Short – Term Bottom Forecast” illustrated a potential Fibonacci time cycle turn due late in the S&P 500 (SPX) 04/14/22  trading session.  Fibonacci time cycles  forecast  market turns, not tops or bottoms.  Market action going into the time cycle determines tops or bottoms.  The SPX was declining into the 04/14/22 Fibonacci timeContinue reading “Possible Lunar Phase Signal”

Short – Term Bottom Forecast

The 04/12/22 blog “S&P 500 Decline is Losing Momentum” noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an Elliott wave – Double Zigzag  correction at the 04/12/22 bottom. The first 30-minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  a completed Double Zigzag at the 04/12/22 bottom. On 04/13/22 the SPX rallied the entire day;Continue reading “Short – Term Bottom Forecast”

  Choppy Rallies and Choppy Declines

Since the S&P 500 (SPX) decline bottom made on 01/24/22 the moves up have been choppy, and the moves down have been choppy. An Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle could be forming.  This structure was examined the 01/14/22 blog “Important Cycle Point – 01-14-22” and in  the 01/19/22 blog “Horizontal Triangle Update – 01-19-22.” HorizontalContinue reading ”  Choppy Rallies and Choppy Declines”