S&P 500 – Second Upside Target

Never underestimate the persistance of a stock bull market or a stock bear market rally. To gain a perspective on the persistence of a stock bull market we need to examine the secular US stock bull market that lasted  thirteen years  from October 1987 to March 2000. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy ofContinue reading “S&P 500 – Second Upside Target”

Day of Decision – 09/02/22

The 08/29/22 blog “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two” noted the next most likely support level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was at the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the 06/17/22 to 08/16/22 rally. On 09/01/22 the SPX low was just above the .618 retracement  level. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading Day of Decision – 09/02/22

Dramatic Decline – Part – Two

Today 08/29/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below the .382 Fibonacci support level; also, bullish momentum divergence were eliminated.  This opens the door for lower prices. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  the next near – term support levels. The Fibonacci .50  level is usually a weak support/resistance level.  The Fibonacci .618Continue reading Dramatic Decline – Part – Two

Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) early in the 08/26/22 session made a marginal new high for the rally that began on 08/24/22.  Triggered by comments from FOMC chairman Powell – US stocks then fell sharply.  The start of major bear wave down?  Indicators and Fibonacci retracement  levels reveal some fascinating clues. The daily SPX chart courtesyContinue reading Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The previous blog “Declining into a Value Area – 08/22/22 presented evidence that US stocks could be finding support on either 08/22/22 or 08/23/22.  A  bottom was made on 08/24/22 just slightly below the area illustrated on the SP – E-Mini continuous chart.  There’s a good chance that a multi-day rally may have commenced. TheContinue reading Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The Interest Rate Bull Market – Part Two

The 08/07/22 blog “The Interest Rate Bull Market” examined the long-term evidence that interest rates were now in a bull market.  This  blog  focuses on the intermediate – term view and additional bullish evidence. The weekly 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the bull move since March 2020. The recentContinue reading “The Interest Rate Bull Market – Part Two”

Stocks Nearing an Important Top? – 08/12/22

Stocks in the second half of August can sometimes  form important tops.  Two prominent examples  are the peaks US stocks made in August 1929 and August 1987.  The subsequent declines were rapid and deep.  Evidence is  mounting that an important stock market  top could be forming  in August 2022.  The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chartContinue reading Stocks Nearing an Important Top? – 08/12/22

The Interest Rate Bull Market

The longer-term trends for interest rates can continue for decades.  Powerful evidence indicates that a nearly 40 – year bear market for US interest rates ended in 2020. The shortest-term US government debt instruments are 90- day/13- week Treasury bills. The monthly chart of  13- week Treasury rates  (IRX) courtesy of Trading  View shows itsContinue reading “The Interest Rate Bull Market”

   Historic Stock Market Tops

Almost all markets have seasonal tendencies, for stocks September to October are usually bearish.  A review of important stock market tops reveals what can occasionally happen during the September to October time  frame. The daily Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  the infamous 1929 stock market crash. The first tradingContinue reading ”   Historic Stock Market Tops”

Possible Short-Term Top – 08/03/22

Today 08/03/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a high of 4167.66 just below a double top made on 06/02/22 and 06/06/22. The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. Both the hourly RSI and MACD have bearish divergences. Its possible a short-term top could be in place at the 08/03/22 high ofContinue reading “Possible Short-Term Top – 08/03/22”