Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?

The 06/16/22 blog “Forecast for a Short-Term Bottom” noted that a S&P 500  (SPX) daily MACD bearish crossover could be forecasting a short-term bottom sometime in the last week of June 2022. Subsequently US stocks have rallied, this  move  could be the prelude for another decline. The 05/28/22 blog “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets”Continue reading “Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?”

  Break of S&P 500 Support

Today 06/09/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below important support at 4073.84 which opens the door for additional decline. The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading  View illustrates the action. This  chart updates the SPX 15 – minute chart  illustrated in the 06/04/22 blog “Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500”.  That chartContinue reading ”  Break of S&P 500 Support”

Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500

On 06/02/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed early in the session then persistently rallied 2.5% closing the session slightly off the high of the day.  Typically, in a stock bull market   the next trading day would have at least marginal gains.  On 06/03/22 – SPX  opened the session down 1.1% and  trended down during  mostContinue reading “Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500”

Using Short-Term Patterns to Determine the Main Trend

The 05/31/22 blog “S&P 500  Momentum Update – 05/31/22” noted the short-term S&P 500 (SPX) price action with the following observations. “The hourly SPX high on 05/31/22 had a significant RSI bearish divergence  which implies  a decline could  continue until at least 06/01/22. A  Fibonacci .236 retrace of the SPX rally from 05/20/22 to 05/31/22.Continue reading “Using Short-Term Patterns to Determine the Main Trend”

Examination of Two Major Bear Markets

The US stock market  declines  from 1929 to 1932 and 2000 to 2002 reveal clues  that could be helpful in determining  stock actions in 2022. The basic  principle of Elliott wave theory is  that progress  is made in five -waves and corrected in three waves.  There are three types of corrective patterns, Zigzag, Flat, andContinue reading “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets”

Secondary Bottom Could be in Place

The 05/13/22 blog “Momentum Indicator Review – 05/13/22” noted that “Since the S&P 500  (SPX)  03/29/22  top the rallies  have  not lasted longer than three- trading days.” For three full trading days after the 05/12/22 bottom, US stocks indices  had  powerful rallies.  Then  05/18/22, right on cue the bears  initiated a vicious counterattack. The NasdaqContinue reading “Secondary Bottom Could be in Place”

Fibonacci Price and Time Connections

It’s possible that the S&P 500 (SPX) decline since the start of 2022 is  the fourth Primary degree wave of a  five – wave Elliott  impulse pattern that began in March 2009.  This theory was examined in the 02/27/22 blog “S&P 500 Long – Term Elliott Wave Count – 02-25-22”.   The SPX April to JuneContinue reading “Fibonacci Price and Time Connections”

Long – Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count 05-03-22

The S&P 500 (SPX) rally from 05/02/22 to 05/03/22 looks like a corrective pattern which implies the SPX could go below the 05/02/22 bottom.  The monthly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  the long- term Elliott wave count. Within Elliott motives  waves  there’s usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves “two” and “four”.  The SPXContinue reading “Long – Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count 05-03-22”

Sharp Stock Reversal – Part – Three

Objectivity is the most important trait that traders must have.  Traders objectively analyze the balance of evidence before acting.  If the evidence indicates a market/stock could rise – it does rally but is subsequently quickly reversed, then conditions have change.  If conditions changed, then you must objectively view the new evidence produced from the change.Continue reading “Sharp Stock Reversal – Part – Three”