Philippine Stock  Exchange Index Bullish Signals

In the short – term the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) has been relatively weaker than the S&P 500 (SPX).  The SPX recent bottom came on 06/17/22, the PSEI didn’t bottom until 06/23/22. On  07/15/22 the PSEI appeared to be on track to make a  new 2022 low, the rally on 07/18/22 appears to haveContinue reading “Philippine Stock  Exchange Index Bullish Signals”

Long-Term Momentum Implies a  Multi-Week Stock Rally

The decline in US stocks from January 2022 to June  has  brought weekly and monthly Stochastics into the oversold zone.  The rally since the late June bottom could ease  the oversold condition.  Action from the S&P 500 (SPX) October 2007 to March 2009 bear market gives  clues as  to how long a  post June 2022Continue reading “Long-Term Momentum Implies a  Multi-Week Stock Rally”

Nasdaq Composite Update – June 30, 2022

The 06/27/22 blog “S&P 500 Could Rally to 4,100”  noted that a break above S&P 500 (SPX) resistance  in the 3940 area  could open  a move to moderate resistance at 4,020 and possibly 4,100.  On 06/28/22 the SPX marginally broke above 3,940 and then declined. The SPX broke below support that was noted at 3,890,Continue reading “Nasdaq Composite Update – June 30, 2022”

Examination of the Philippine Stock Market

The Society of Technical Analysts based in  Philippine’s has invited me  to speak to their group via zoom about the outlook for the US and Philippine stock markets. The relationship between the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEI) and the S&P 500 (SPX) reveals clues relevant to the global stock market. The monthly PSEI and SPX chartContinue reading “Examination of the Philippine Stock Market”

Nasdaq Composite – MACD Indicator

The 06/16/22 and 06/23/22 blogs examined the possibility that US stocks could make a new decline bottom, within the 06/28/22 to 06/30/22 time  zone. The US stock market rally on 06/24/22 has reduced  the chances of a bottom being made in the last week of June 2022. The daily Nasdaq Composite chart (IXIC) courtesy ofContinue reading “Nasdaq Composite – MACD Indicator”

Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?

The 06/16/22 blog “Forecast for a Short-Term Bottom” noted that a S&P 500  (SPX) daily MACD bearish crossover could be forecasting a short-term bottom sometime in the last week of June 2022. Subsequently US stocks have rallied, this  move  could be the prelude for another decline. The 05/28/22 blog “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets”Continue reading “Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?”

  Break of S&P 500 Support

Today 06/09/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below important support at 4073.84 which opens the door for additional decline. The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading  View illustrates the action. This  chart updates the SPX 15 – minute chart  illustrated in the 06/04/22 blog “Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500”.  That chartContinue reading ”  Break of S&P 500 Support”

Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500

On 06/02/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed early in the session then persistently rallied 2.5% closing the session slightly off the high of the day.  Typically, in a stock bull market   the next trading day would have at least marginal gains.  On 06/03/22 – SPX  opened the session down 1.1% and  trended down during  mostContinue reading “Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500”

Using Short-Term Patterns to Determine the Main Trend

The 05/31/22 blog “S&P 500  Momentum Update – 05/31/22” noted the short-term S&P 500 (SPX) price action with the following observations. “The hourly SPX high on 05/31/22 had a significant RSI bearish divergence  which implies  a decline could  continue until at least 06/01/22. A  Fibonacci .236 retrace of the SPX rally from 05/20/22 to 05/31/22.Continue reading “Using Short-Term Patterns to Determine the Main Trend”

Examination of Two Major Bear Markets

The US stock market  declines  from 1929 to 1932 and 2000 to 2002 reveal clues  that could be helpful in determining  stock actions in 2022. The basic  principle of Elliott wave theory is  that progress  is made in five -waves and corrected in three waves.  There are three types of corrective patterns, Zigzag, Flat, andContinue reading “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets”