Curious Non – Confirmation

On 09/27/22 within the time window for a possible lunar turn signal, the S&P 500 (SPX) marginally broke below its 06/17/22 bottom.  The SPX breakthrough was the second of the three main US stock indices to make a new bear market low – a bearish confirming signal. However, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) did not makeContinue reading “Curious Non – Confirmation”

A Review of Momentum and Sentiment Indicators – 09/21/22

On the FOMC interest rate announcement day, US stocks continued to decline.  The daily S&P 500 (SPX) – RSI bullish divergence was eliminated.   This blog updates the actions of two internal momentum indicators. The daily chart courtesy of examines  US New Highs  minus New Lows (5-day total – end of day) symbol ($USHL5).Continue reading A Review of Momentum and Sentiment Indicators – 09/21/22

A Review of Momentum Indicators – 09/16/22

Market momentum should at least match or exceed price  movements.  Momentum divergences  imply lack of conviction and could be the prelude to a reversal. This  blog updates momentum indicators that were illustrated in the 09/14/22 blog “Erratic Price Movements”. The daily S&P 500  (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View examines  external momentum. As of 09/14/22Continue reading A Review of Momentum Indicators – 09/16/22

Erratic Price Movements

From 09/06/22 to 09/12/22 US stocks had a strong and steady rally.   Then in two trading days the move up was nearly wiped out.  The first phase of a larger developing decline?  An examination of momentum indicators argue against this theory. In stock bull markets  rallies  are  normally slow and steady. Declines  usually don’t exceedContinue reading “Erratic Price Movements”

S&P 500 – Second Upside Target

Never underestimate the persistance of a stock bull market or a stock bear market rally. To gain a perspective on the persistence of a stock bull market we need to examine the secular US stock bull market that lasted  thirteen years  from October 1987 to March 2000. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy ofContinue reading “S&P 500 – Second Upside Target”

S&P 500 – First Upside Target

The S&P 500 (SPX) turn on 09/06/22 appears  to be the beginning of at least a multi- week rally.  Daily momentum indicators provide guidance to determine the first upside target. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  three external momentum indicators. The daily Stochastic has a bullish lines crossover and has yet to reachContinue reading “S&P 500 – First Upside Target”

Rally and Retracement

The prior blog “Day of Decision  – 09/02/22” noted that the US monthly payroll report release on 09/02/22 could decide the near-term direction for US stocks. The reaction to the payroll report was bullish and the S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 1.3% above the 09/01/22 closing level.   Then one – hour after the SPX 09/02/22Continue reading “Rally and Retracement”

Day of Decision – 09/02/22

The 08/29/22 blog “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two” noted the next most likely support level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was at the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the 06/17/22 to 08/16/22 rally. On 09/01/22 the SPX low was just above the .618 retracement  level. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading Day of Decision – 09/02/22

Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) early in the 08/26/22 session made a marginal new high for the rally that began on 08/24/22.  Triggered by comments from FOMC chairman Powell – US stocks then fell sharply.  The start of major bear wave down?  Indicators and Fibonacci retracement  levels reveal some fascinating clues. The daily SPX chart courtesyContinue reading Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22