Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) early in the 08/26/22 session made a marginal new high for the rally that began on 08/24/22.  Triggered by comments from FOMC chairman Powell – US stocks then fell sharply.  The start of major bear wave down?  Indicators and Fibonacci retracement  levels reveal some fascinating clues. The daily SPX chart courtesyContinue reading Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The previous blog “Declining into a Value Area – 08/22/22 presented evidence that US stocks could be finding support on either 08/22/22 or 08/23/22.  A  bottom was made on 08/24/22 just slightly below the area illustrated on the SP – E-Mini continuous chart.  There’s a good chance that a multi-day rally may have commenced. TheContinue reading Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The Interest Rate Bull Market – Part Two

The 08/07/22 blog “The Interest Rate Bull Market” examined the long-term evidence that interest rates were now in a bull market.  This  blog  focuses on the intermediate – term view and additional bullish evidence. The weekly 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the bull move since March 2020. The recentContinue reading “The Interest Rate Bull Market – Part Two”

Stocks Nearing an Important Top? – 08/12/22

Stocks in the second half of August can sometimes  form important tops.  Two prominent examples  are the peaks US stocks made in August 1929 and August 1987.  The subsequent declines were rapid and deep.  Evidence is  mounting that an important stock market  top could be forming  in August 2022.  The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chartContinue reading Stocks Nearing an Important Top? – 08/12/22

The Interest Rate Bull Market

The longer-term trends for interest rates can continue for decades.  Powerful evidence indicates that a nearly 40 – year bear market for US interest rates ended in 2020. The shortest-term US government debt instruments are 90- day/13- week Treasury bills. The monthly chart of  13- week Treasury rates  (IRX) courtesy of Trading  View shows itsContinue reading “The Interest Rate Bull Market”

   Historic Stock Market Tops

Almost all markets have seasonal tendencies, for stocks September to October are usually bearish.  A review of important stock market tops reveals what can occasionally happen during the September to October time  frame. The daily Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  the infamous 1929 stock market crash. The first tradingContinue reading ”   Historic Stock Market Tops”

Possible Short-Term Top – 08/03/22

Today 08/03/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a high of 4167.66 just below a double top made on 06/02/22 and 06/06/22. The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. Both the hourly RSI and MACD have bearish divergences. Its possible a short-term top could be in place at the 08/03/22 high ofContinue reading “Possible Short-Term Top – 08/03/22”

Crude Oil Trading Range

Since March 2022 Crude Oil has been in a trading range between 126.00 and 92.00. Momentum signals and seasonal patterns suggest a new uptrend may have begun. The daily Crude Oil chart – (CL2!) – continuous next futures contract in front – courtesy of Trading  View illustrates  the trading range. First note the double bottomContinue reading “Crude Oil Trading Range”

Important S&P 500 – Support Levels

At the 06/17/22 bottom the S&P 500 (SPX) had declined 24%, this is second largest percentage  decline since the 2007 to 2009  bear market.  The largest percentage drop was the February to March 2020 crash of 35%.  The 06/18/22 blog “Dow Jones Industrial Average  Long – Term Time Forecast”  implied that the early January 2022Continue reading “Important S&P 500 – Support Levels”

The  Next  S&P 500 – Support Level

Today 06/14/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) moved marginally below the declining daily trendline support and chart support from bottoms made  in March 2021.  Because  the move below support was minor it could be break out fake out. On 06/15/22 the FOMC interest decision could trigger a more decisive move.  If the move is down PointContinue reading “The  Next  S&P 500 – Support Level”