The Battle Line – May 2021

Markets are a form of non-violent warfare; each trading days is a constant battle for dominance between  the bulls and bears. Determining strong points  defended  by bulls and bears, known in trading as support/resistance is key to knowing which side could prevail.   A  strong area of support for the S&P 500 (SPX)  has appeared thatContinue reading “The Battle Line – May 2021”

Blow Off Top on Top of a Blow Off Top

The first phase or kick off of the S&P 500 (SPX) secular bull market was from 03/06/09 to 04/26/10. This move lasted 286 trading days and gained 82.9. This was one of the farthest and fastest rallies in US stock market history. The bull phase that began on 03/23/20 to today – 04/16/21 has lastedContinue reading “Blow Off Top on Top of a Blow Off Top”

Nasdaq – 100 Breaks Through Resistance Then Declines

Today 03/10/21 the Nasdaq – 100 (NDX) opened above the upper of two Fibonacci resistance levels.  Normally this break out at the open of the trading session would have triggered a bullish move for the remainder of the trading day. The NDX 30-minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened. The high of theContinue reading “Nasdaq – 100 Breaks Through Resistance Then Declines”

Important Trendline Support Broken

Today 03/04/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below the rising trendline from the bottoms  made on 03/23/20 and 10/30/20. Additionally, the short- term bottom at 3789.54 made on 02/26/21 was also broken.  These dual breaches of support contribute to the massive amount of evidence that US stocks may have formed an important top. The dailyContinue reading “Important Trendline Support Broken”

Clues From the Past, Key to the Future?

The rally in US stocks since the crash bottom of March 2020 is the strongest since the kickoff of the secular bull market began in March 2009.  In  Elliott Wave Theory wave “one” of a five-wave impulse pattern usually has a relationship to wave “five”.  The most common relationship is equality in price and time. Continue reading “Clues From the Past, Key to the Future?”

Dow Jones Industrial Average Ninety – Year View

The 12/06/20 post “Strongest Rally of the Bull Market” focused on a ten – year view of the S&P 500 (SPX) noting that the rally from March 2020 was stronger than the kickoff rally that began in March 2009.  A  longer-term perspective is needed  to understand the power of the current US stock rally. TheContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial Average Ninety – Year View”

US Stocks Topping in Early January 2021?

Evidence is developing that the US stock market could have at least a short-term top or possibly a major peak in early January 2021. The 12/06/20 post “Strongest Rally of the Bull Market”  compared the current stock rally from 03/23/20 with the 2009 to 2010 kickoff phase of the secular bull market.  A closer examinationContinue reading “US Stocks Topping in Early January 2021?”