Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks

Market sentiment can be measured in two ways; bets made by traders such as Put and Call options, or by polling.  Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus  is the degree of bullish sentiment for a particular market, such as Gold. The Bullish Consensus is compiled  by tracking the buy andContinue reading “Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks”

Dow Jones Transportation Average – Update February 2021

My 01/30/21 blog “Dow Jones Transportation Average – Major Top?” speculated the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) may have completed a five wave Elliott impulse pattern from the March 2020 bottom. As it turned out the DJT finished a correction on 01/29/21. The daily DJT chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the subsequent upside action. Continue reading “Dow Jones Transportation Average – Update February 2021”

Consumer Staples Fund – Update February 2021

My 01/19/21 blog “Consumer Staples Fund – XLP Update” noted that this exchange traded fund symbol (XLP) had two Fibonacci support points at 63.34 and 63.56. The daily XLP chart courtesy of Trading View shows its current situation. On 02/26/21 XLP has gone slightly below the lower Fibonacci target and reached 63.28. However, the dailyContinue reading “Consumer Staples Fund – Update February 2021”

Something Different is Happening

When a market or stock starts behaving differently than its norm this cam frequent be a sign of a trend change.  Since 10/30/20 bottom, the Nasdaq Composite has outperformed the other two main US stock indices: the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones  Industrial Average (DJI). The IXIC  gained 30% from 10/30/20 to itsContinue reading “Something Different is Happening”

Potential Fibonacci Ratio Time Forecast

There are various techniques used for Fibonacci time analysis that are grouped into two categories, Fibonacci sequence, and Fibonacci ratio. The Fibonacci sequence is as follows (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 – – – to infinity). An example of this method can be seen  in my 08/22/20 blog “Forecast – Bull Market Termination Date -2021” The other method involvesContinue reading “Potential Fibonacci Ratio Time Forecast”

Clues From the Past, Key to the Future?

The rally in US stocks since the crash bottom of March 2020 is the strongest since the kickoff of the secular bull market began in March 2009.  In  Elliott Wave Theory wave “one” of a five-wave impulse pattern usually has a relationship to wave “five”.  The most common relationship is equality in price and time. Continue reading “Clues From the Past, Key to the Future?”

Using Bitcoin as an Indicator for the US Stock Market

Bitcoin in US dollars (BTCUSD) has been trading since June 2017 and  has shown that it can be a leading indicator at significant tops and bottoms for the US stock market. The daily BTCUSD and S&P 500 (SPX)  chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship. In December 2017 BTCUSD reached its bull market highContinue reading “Using Bitcoin as an Indicator for the US Stock Market”

NYSE New 52 – Week Highs – Update February 2021

The NYSE New 52 – Week Highs ($NYHGH) chart courtesy of StockCharts.com shows the internal momentum of  the NYSE since the start of the secular bull market in March 2009. The five phases roughly correspond to the five peaks within an extended  nine – wave Elliott impulse wave. Phase 1 covers what I’ve labeled asContinue reading “NYSE New 52 – Week Highs – Update February 2021”

Final Wave Up for US Stock Market?

The hourly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the Elliott wave subdivisions since the Important 10/30/20 bottom. Note the significant bearish divergence on the hourly RSI, it implies at least a short-term peak could be in place as of the late 02/12/21 rally. If there’s more upside it could be brief, perhapsContinue reading “Final Wave Up for US Stock Market?”