Typically, “window dressing” occurs on the last trading day of a quarter. Stock fund managers buy top performing stocks on the last trading day of the quarter to show they have these winners in their portfolios. This usually causes an upward move in at least one of the three main indices. The S&P 500 (SPX)Continue reading “Could US Stocks Rally Until August 2021?”
Category Archives: Sentiment
Two – Bearish Signals
The 06/24//21 blog noted “If the SPX makes a marginal new high unconfirmed by the IXIC and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a higher VIX bottom, it could be the end of the persistent rally.” The daily VIX/SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened on 06/25/21. The S&P 500 (SPX) made aContinue reading “Two – Bearish Signals”
Bearish Momentum and Sentiment Signals – Part Two
My original intention was for this blog to give a comprehensive view of evidence from all four market dimensions: price, time, momentum, and sentiment. There’s just too much data, so this post will focus on additional long- and short-term momentum/sentiment evidence. The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates long-term momentum/sentiment signals.Continue reading “Bearish Momentum and Sentiment Signals – Part Two”
Bearish Momentum and Sentiment Signals – June 2021
June 15,2021 could be an important date in the history of the US stock market. In the first minute of trading the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new all-time high then went down. Also, the daily VIX recorded a higher bottom vs. the SPX new high. As noted in several blogs this is a reliableContinue reading “Bearish Momentum and Sentiment Signals – June 2021”
Bullish VIX Signal
The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index (VIX) has a reliable history of signaling S&P 500 (SPX) tops. Some analysts/traders believe the VIX making a new low is bearish. This in most instances is a bullish signal. The daily VIX/SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their action since late 2019. Note the SPX 05/07/21Continue reading “Bullish VIX Signal”
Broad Stock Market Top?
Stock markets are ruled by the forces of optimism and pessimism, some would say hope and fear. Pessimism/fear is more intense which is why stocks and stock markets generally fall faster than they rise. Intensity also creates distinctive bottoms, the March 23, 2020, bottom is a perfect example, the vast majority of US stock indicesContinue reading “Broad Stock Market Top?”
Never Ending Rally?
The US stock market is late in the bullish season with long- and short-term bearish momentum signals, yet the rally continues. Could it rise for several weeks or months without at least a correction? Highly unlikely, at some point all trends end. On 04/29/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) madeContinue reading “Never Ending Rally?”
Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals
Investors who use margin debt pledge their securities in exchange for loans from brokers to buy more securities or sell short a stock. Usually, total margin debt increases as stock markets rise and decline in stock bear markets. The chart of margin debt compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) from Advisor Perspectives shows the relationshipContinue reading “Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals”
Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21
The March 2, 2021 blog examined the Bullish Consensus readings for the US stock market over the entire secular bull market that began in March 2009. This update will also examine the recent readings since late 2020. Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus is the degree of bullish sentiment forContinue reading “Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21”
Additional Evidence of a Pending Stock Market Top
Short-term Sentiment At important market peaks the evidence is not universally bearish, The same for important market bottoms, there’s usually at least one factor that is contrary to the weight of evidence. The VIX indicator continues to be bullish. I’ve noted in prior posts that the VIX usually makes a higher bottom at S&PContinue reading “Additional Evidence of a Pending Stock Market Top”
