Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals

Investors who use margin debt pledge their securities in exchange for loans from brokers to buy more securities or sell short a stock. Usually, total margin debt increases as stock markets rise and decline in stock bear markets. The chart of margin debt compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) from Advisor Perspectives shows the relationshipContinue reading “Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals”

Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21

The March 2, 2021 blog examined the Bullish Consensus readings for the US stock market over the entire secular bull market that began in March 2009.  This update will also examine the recent readings since late 2020. Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus  is the degree of bullish sentiment forContinue reading “Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21”

Additional Evidence of a Pending Stock Market Top

Short-term Sentiment At important market peaks the evidence is not universally bearish, The same for important market bottoms, there’s usually at least one factor that is contrary to the weight of evidence.   The VIX indicator continues to be bullish.  I’ve noted in prior posts that the VIX  usually makes a higher bottom at S&PContinue reading “Additional Evidence of a Pending Stock Market Top”

Stock Topping Process Continues – Part Two

Today 03/17/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made new all-time highs. When two of the three main US stock indices make new all-time highs it’s a bullish signal. Also, the VIX made a new low for its movement down from its last major high in March 2020. The dailyContinue reading “Stock Topping Process Continues – Part Two”

Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks

Market sentiment can be measured in two ways; bets made by traders such as Put and Call options, or by polling.  Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus  is the degree of bullish sentiment for a particular market, such as Gold. The Bullish Consensus is compiled  by tracking the buy andContinue reading “Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks”

VIX Continues to Give a Bearish Signal

Today 01/20/21 the S&P 500 SPX made another new all-time high while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continued to give a bearish divergence vs. its late November 2020 bottom.  This divergence was noted in the 01/09/21 post “Early January  Sentiment and Momentum Signals”. Today the VIX held at the same level 21.40 as made atContinue reading “VIX Continues to Give a Bearish Signal”

Early January Sentiment and Momentum Signals

The 01/06/21 post “S&P 500 Target Reached- Take Profits and Go Short” noted that evidence from three market dimensions, price, time, and momentum indicated at least a short-term US stock market peak could be developing.  Now, evidence from the sentiment dimension bolsters the probably of an approaching decline. Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility IndexContinue reading “Early January Sentiment and Momentum Signals”