Mark Rivest

Struggling to Rally

Today 04/26/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) slowly struggled to rise. It took almost the entire session to break above the all-time high of 4194.17 made on 04/23/21. The breakout was.02 points reaching 4194.19 – the SPX then sharply fell below the low of the session. Interestingly the VIX – volatility indicator rose during theContinue reading “Struggling to Rally”

Bearish Rule of the Majority Signal

At the close of trading 04/22/21 it looked like the US stock market was in the process of a bearish rollover. The next day – bulls strongly disagreed. On the surface the powerful rally looks sustainable, viewed in a broader context it reveals many bearish signals. When only one of the three main US stockContinue reading “Bearish Rule of the Majority Signal”

Stocks Rollover

Today 04/22/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) came within eleven points of making a new all-time high before turning down sharply. Neither of the other two US main stock indices, Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Nasdaq Composite were able to make new all-time highs. Today may have been the bulls last gasp to keep theContinue reading “Stocks Rollover”

A Turn in the Tide?

Recently some of my followers have been asking if the US stock market needs a trigger event, some news that causes a decline. At the last major US stock market top in October 2007 there was no news event that triggered the initial drop. Later in September and October 2008 there was plenty of newsContinue reading “A Turn in the Tide?”

S&P 500 Alternate Elliott Wave Count 04-17-21

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates an alternate wave count. My 04/11/21 blog “Target of Opportunity” illustrated an SPX Elliott wave count from 03/23/20 to 04/09/21 ending at a supposed Intermediate wave (3). This count is still valid however seasonal factors make this count less likely. “Sell in May andContinue reading “S&P 500 Alternate Elliott Wave Count 04-17-21”

Blow Off Top on Top of a Blow Off Top

The first phase or kick off of the S&P 500 (SPX) secular bull market was from 03/06/09 to 04/26/10. This move lasted 286 trading days and gained 82.9. This was one of the farthest and fastest rallies in US stock market history. The bull phase that began on 03/23/20 to today – 04/16/21 has lastedContinue reading “Blow Off Top on Top of a Blow Off Top”

Stock Bulls are Running Out of Time

Today 04/14/21 two of the three main US stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made new all-time highs. This is a bullish “Rule of the majority” signal. Additionally, the VIX indicator made a new low in its decline from its high made in March 2020. These factors are atContinue reading “Stock Bulls are Running Out of Time”

Target of Opportunity

There are always alternate Elliott wave counts, the mass mind like an individual mind can change direction. Elliott wave analysts need to be prepared for change and have at least one alternate wave count. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the revised Elliott wave count. The series of three smallContinue reading “Target of Opportunity”

Market Resting Time

On 04/09/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) achieved a gain of 88.4% from the 03/23/20 bottom, this is one of the farthest and fastest gains in US stock market history. In 1999 the Nasdaq Composite had a faster and larger move; however, this was primarily because of concentrated buying in the technology sector. You have toContinue reading “Market Resting Time”

Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals

Investors who use margin debt pledge their securities in exchange for loans from brokers to buy more securities or sell short a stock. Usually, total margin debt increases as stock markets rise and decline in stock bear markets. The chart of margin debt compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) from Advisor Perspectives shows the relationshipContinue reading “Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals”