Mark Rivest

US Economy in Recession – Stocks Rally

The 07/07/22 blog “Long -Term Momentum Implies a Multi – Week Rally” noted US stocks could rise into August with a bulls – eye target date of 08/22/22 for a potential peak. The action of US stocks in the last week of July continues to bolster that theory. What happened on 07/27/22 and 07/28/22 hintsContinue reading “US Economy in Recession – Stocks Rally”

S&P 500 – Momentum Update – 07/22/22

On 07/22/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) hit round number resistance at 4,000 and then trended down for most of the session. Is this the start of the next down wave in a bear market? Perhaps, however short-term and long-term momentum indicators suggest there could be more upside action. The daily SPX chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading ” S&P 500 – Momentum Update – 07/22/22″

S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 07/21/22

The 05/28/22 blog “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets” noted that the 2022 decline of US stock market was taking a complex pattern similar to the 2000 to 2002 bear market. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View updates the Elliott wave count. Normally the complex Elliott wave patterns such asContinue reading ” S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 07/21/22″

Bullish Break Out – 07/20/22

Today 07/20/22, the S&P 500 (SPX) broke above resistance created by a double top made on 06/10/22 at 3943.17 and 06/28/22 at 3945.86. The SPX high on 07/20/22 was 3974.13 and 30.96 points above the 06/28/22 peak. When the SPX broke above the 06/10/22 top on 06/28/22 it was only able to exceed the priorContinue reading “Bullish Break Out – 07/20/22”

S&P 500 – Near Important Resistance 07/19/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) high on 07/19/22 was 3,939.81, just below a double peak. If the SPX can decisively break above this resistance it could open the door for a move up to the 4,100 area. The SPX – 15 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. On 06/10/22 the SPX madeContinue reading “S&P 500 – Near Important Resistance 07/19/22”

Philippine Stock Exchange Index Bullish Signals

In the short – term the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) has been relatively weaker than the S&P 500 (SPX). The SPX recent bottom came on 06/17/22, the PSEI didn’t bottom until 06/23/22. On 07/15/22 the PSEI appeared to be on track to make a new 2022 low, the rally on 07/18/22 appears to haveContinue reading “Philippine Stock Exchange Index Bullish Signals”

Slow Rise

From January to June 2022 the three main US stock indices were in a steady downtrend creating an oversold condition. Could July 2022 also be another down month for US stocks? Evidence continues to suggest a multi-week rally is developing. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates long-term momentum. This chartContinue reading ” Slow Rise”

A Full Moon and Trendlines

Occasionally markets can turn on or near Full or New Moons. For stocks Full Moons tend to signal bottoms, New Moons tend to signal tops. There’s a Full Moon on 07/13/22. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates New and Full Moons since late 2021. Using the parameters of plus orContinue reading “A Full Moon and Trendlines”

Crude Oil Trading Range

Since March 2022 Crude Oil has been in a trading range between 126.00 and 92.00. Momentum signals and seasonal patterns suggest a new uptrend may have begun. The daily Crude Oil chart – (CL2!) – continuous next futures contract in front – courtesy of Trading View illustrates the trading range. First note the double bottomContinue reading “Crude Oil Trading Range”

Long-Term Momentum Implies a Multi-Week Stock Rally

The decline in US stocks from January 2022 to June has brought weekly and monthly Stochastics into the oversold zone. The rally since the late June bottom could ease the oversold condition. Action from the S&P 500 (SPX) October 2007 to March 2009 bear market gives clues as to how long a post June 2022Continue reading “Long-Term Momentum Implies a Multi-Week Stock Rally”