The decline in US stocks from January 2022 to June has brought weekly and monthly Stochastics into the oversold zone. The rally since the late June bottom could ease the oversold condition. Action from the S&P 500 (SPX) October 2007 to March 2009 bear market gives clues as to how long a post June 2022Continue reading “Long-Term Momentum Implies a Multi-Week Stock Rally”
Category Archives: Elliott Wave
Nasdaq Composite Update – June 30, 2022
The 06/27/22 blog “S&P 500 Could Rally to 4,100” noted that a break above S&P 500 (SPX) resistance in the 3940 area could open a move to moderate resistance at 4,020 and possibly 4,100. On 06/28/22 the SPX marginally broke above 3,940 and then declined. The SPX broke below support that was noted at 3,890,Continue reading “Nasdaq Composite Update – June 30, 2022”
Examination of the Philippine Stock Market
The Society of Technical Analysts based in Philippine’s has invited me to speak to their group via zoom about the outlook for the US and Philippine stock markets. The relationship between the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEI) and the S&P 500 (SPX) reveals clues relevant to the global stock market. The monthly PSEI and SPX chartContinue reading “Examination of the Philippine Stock Market”
Nasdaq Composite – MACD Indicator
The 06/16/22 and 06/23/22 blogs examined the possibility that US stocks could make a new decline bottom, within the 06/28/22 to 06/30/22 time zone. The US stock market rally on 06/24/22 has reduced the chances of a bottom being made in the last week of June 2022. The daily Nasdaq Composite chart (IXIC) courtesy ofContinue reading “Nasdaq Composite – MACD Indicator”
Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?
The 06/16/22 blog “Forecast for a Short-Term Bottom” noted that a S&P 500 (SPX) daily MACD bearish crossover could be forecasting a short-term bottom sometime in the last week of June 2022. Subsequently US stocks have rallied, this move could be the prelude for another decline. The 05/28/22 blog “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets”Continue reading “Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?”
Break of S&P 500 Support
Today 06/09/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below important support at 4073.84 which opens the door for additional decline. The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. This chart updates the SPX 15 – minute chart illustrated in the 06/04/22 blog “Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500”. That chartContinue reading ” Break of S&P 500 Support”
Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500
On 06/02/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed early in the session then persistently rallied 2.5% closing the session slightly off the high of the day. Typically, in a stock bull market the next trading day would have at least marginal gains. On 06/03/22 – SPX opened the session down 1.1% and trended down during mostContinue reading “Three Possible Paths for the S&P 500”
Using Short-Term Patterns to Determine the Main Trend
The 05/31/22 blog “S&P 500 Momentum Update – 05/31/22” noted the short-term S&P 500 (SPX) price action with the following observations. “The hourly SPX high on 05/31/22 had a significant RSI bearish divergence which implies a decline could continue until at least 06/01/22. A Fibonacci .236 retrace of the SPX rally from 05/20/22 to 05/31/22.Continue reading “Using Short-Term Patterns to Determine the Main Trend”
Examination of Two Major Bear Markets
The US stock market declines from 1929 to 1932 and 2000 to 2002 reveal clues that could be helpful in determining stock actions in 2022. The basic principle of Elliott wave theory is that progress is made in five -waves and corrected in three waves. There are three types of corrective patterns, Zigzag, Flat, andContinue reading “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets”
Secondary Bottom Could be in Place
The 05/13/22 blog “Momentum Indicator Review – 05/13/22” noted that “Since the S&P 500 (SPX) 03/29/22 top the rallies have not lasted longer than three- trading days.” For three full trading days after the 05/12/22 bottom, US stocks indices had powerful rallies. Then 05/18/22, right on cue the bears initiated a vicious counterattack. The NasdaqContinue reading “Secondary Bottom Could be in Place”
Four Dimension Trading 