Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Dow Jones Industrial Average Could Make a New High in 2023  

The 2023 Stock Trader’s  Almanac has been published. This annual book has a tremendous amount of statistical data about the US stock market.  One of the sections in this year’s  edition is  titled  “Why a 50% Gain in the Dow is  Possible from its 2022 Low to its 2023 High”.  The article details  the actionsContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial Average Could Make a New High in 2023  “

The Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds

Some traders/investors think that when stocks go up bonds go down, the reverse if stocks are going  down.  This  is  not always  true.  Sometime stocks trade inverse to bonds, sometimes  they trade together.  If  on 10/24/22 US government treasury bonds made an intermediate bottom it’s rally could correspond with  US stocks rising. The I-Shares 20Continue reading “The Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds“

Important Interest Rate Divergence

Additional Evidence that US interest rates  may have hit an intermediate peak. The following chart is courtesy of Trading  View. TYX – the Trading View symbol for 30 – year yields. TNX – the Trading View symbol for 10 – year yields. FVX – the Trading View symbol for 5- year yields. On 10/24/22 TYXContinue reading “Important Interest Rate Divergence”

Intermediate Top For Interest Rates?

Several clues from interest rates and bonds imply a trend reversal may have begun. The 10/19/22 blog “US Interest Rates Could be Near a Top” noted that the  monthly CBOE  30 – year  Treasury Bond Yield  (TYX) was nearing  a  resistance zone.  The TYX price action on 10/21/22 was dramatic and the first hint ofContinue reading “Intermediate Top For Interest Rates?“

  Stock Market Bulls Have Momentum – 10/21/22

The strong rally in US stocks on 10/21/22 added evidence that the bulls have momentum.   However,  an important resistance level  needs  to be exceeded for the uptrend to continue. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View updates  the action. Daily SPX – RSI has now crossed above the 50% level  usually thisContinue reading ”  Stock Market Bulls Have Momentum – 10/21/22″

US Interest Rates Could be Near a Top

For several months interest rates in the US have been surging  higher, they could soon be reaching an intermediate peak. The  monthly 30 – year CBOE Treasury Bond Yield  (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term view. TYX is  nearing  a  Fibonacci .236 retracement of the colossal 39 – year bear market thatContinue reading “US Interest Rates Could be Near a Top“

Momentum and Sentiment Update – 10/14/22

Weekly momentum and daily sentiment indicators show that stock market bears could be losing  strength. The blog “Dramatic Reversal – 10/13/22”  noted that S&P 500 (SPX) daily Stochastic, RSI , and MACD all had bullish divergences.  Longer – term momentum oscillators  also have bullish divergences. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrate the additionalContinue reading “Momentum and Sentiment Update – 10/14/22“

Fascinating Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships – 10/14/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) action into the 10/13/14 bottom reveals  clues  that the decline from the 08/16/22 peak could be part of a larger developing Elliott wave pattern. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates Fibonacci price and time relationships. The SPX rally from 06/17/22 to the peak on 08/16/22 took 40 –Continue reading “Fascinating Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships – 10/14/22“

Support Break – 10/11/22

Today 10/11/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) joined the Nasdaq Composite in making  new bear market lows.  The SPX support break invalidates the Elliott wave – Expanding Flat formation noted in the “Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish  Interpretations – 09/30/22” blog.  The door could now be open for a rapid one- or two-week SPX drop to theContinue reading “Support Break – 10/11/22”