On 12/06/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below important support made on 11/29/22, wiping out all of the gains made during the powerful 11/30/22 rally. Additionally, the decline from the 12/01/22 peak at 4,100 has the look of a developing Elliott – Impulse wave. If so, this could be the first wave down of aContinue reading ” Wounded Bull Market”
Category Archives: Momentum
Follow the Leader
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has retraced 50% of its 2022 bear move and is currently the most bullish of the three main US stock indices. The DJI action in the next few trading days could determine the direction of US stocks for the rest of 2022. No market indicator or system is effectiveContinue reading “Follow the Leader”
Intermediate Top For Interest Rates?
Several clues from interest rates and bonds imply a trend reversal may have begun. The 10/19/22 blog “US Interest Rates Could be Near a Top” noted that the monthly CBOE 30 – year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) was nearing a resistance zone. The TYX price action on 10/21/22 was dramatic and the first hint ofContinue reading “Intermediate Top For Interest Rates?“
Stock Market Bulls Have Momentum – 10/21/22
The strong rally in US stocks on 10/21/22 added evidence that the bulls have momentum. However, an important resistance level needs to be exceeded for the uptrend to continue. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Daily SPX – RSI has now crossed above the 50% level usually thisContinue reading ” Stock Market Bulls Have Momentum – 10/21/22″
Momentum and Sentiment Update – 10/14/22
Weekly momentum and daily sentiment indicators show that stock market bears could be losing strength. The blog “Dramatic Reversal – 10/13/22” noted that S&P 500 (SPX) daily Stochastic, RSI , and MACD all had bullish divergences. Longer – term momentum oscillators also have bullish divergences. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrate the additionalContinue reading “Momentum and Sentiment Update – 10/14/22“
Dramatic Reversal – 10/13/22
Sometimes after trending down for days or weeks a stock or stock index could be triggered into a selling climax. What happened after the release if the monthly US- CPI report on 10/13/22 could be a selling climax. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Just after the SPXContinue reading “Dramatic Reversal – 10/13/22“
Support Break – 10/11/22
Today 10/11/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) joined the Nasdaq Composite in making new bear market lows. The SPX support break invalidates the Elliott wave – Expanding Flat formation noted in the “Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish Interpretations – 09/30/22” blog. The door could now be open for a rapid one- or two-week SPX drop to theContinue reading “Support Break – 10/11/22”
The Relationship Between US Stocks and Crude Oil
The US stock market and Crude Oil – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have similar seasonal patterns, specifically both tend to trend down from September to October. Crude Oil’s powerful move up from its late September 2022 bottom could continue through October and perhaps longer. This counter seasonal move up could be a hint for aContinue reading “The Relationship Between US Stocks and Crude Oil“
Russell 2000 – Bullish Signal
In late September 2022 the Russell 2000 (RUT) small cap stock index bottomed before the S&P 500 (SPX). After the 09/30/22 SPX bottom, RUT rallied higher relative to the SPX. Then on 10/07/22 during a large decline in US stocks, RUT fell less relative to the SPX. The 30- minute SPX and RUT chart courtesyContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Bullish Signal”
Russell 2000 Leading the Way Up – 10/04/22
During late September 2022 the Russell 2000 (RUT) index of small cap stocks struggled to go lower. Now in early October its leading US stocks higher. A review of external momentum indicators imply the rally could continue for several weeks. The daily RUT chart courtesy of Trading View updates the price and momentum action. OnContinue reading “Russell 2000 Leading the Way Up – 10/04/22“
