Category Archives: Momentum

Erratic Price Movements

From 09/06/22 to 09/12/22 US stocks had a strong and steady rally.   Then in two trading days the move up was nearly wiped out.  The first phase of a larger developing decline?  An examination of momentum indicators argue against this theory. In stock bull markets  rallies  are  normally slow and steady. Declines  usually don’t exceedContinue reading “Erratic Price Movements”

S&P 500 – Second Upside Target

Never underestimate the persistance of a stock bull market or a stock bear market rally. To gain a perspective on the persistence of a stock bull market we need to examine the secular US stock bull market that lasted  thirteen years  from October 1987 to March 2000. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy ofContinue reading “S&P 500 – Second Upside Target”

S&P 500 – First Upside Target

The S&P 500 (SPX) turn on 09/06/22 appears  to be the beginning of at least a multi- week rally.  Daily momentum indicators provide guidance to determine the first upside target. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  three external momentum indicators. The daily Stochastic has a bullish lines crossover and has yet to reachContinue reading “S&P 500 – First Upside Target”

Rally and Retracement

The prior blog “Day of Decision  – 09/02/22” noted that the US monthly payroll report release on 09/02/22 could decide the near-term direction for US stocks. The reaction to the payroll report was bullish and the S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 1.3% above the 09/01/22 closing level.   Then one – hour after the SPX 09/02/22Continue reading “Rally and Retracement”

Day of Decision – 09/02/22

The 08/29/22 blog “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two” noted the next most likely support level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was at the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the 06/17/22 to 08/16/22 rally. On 09/01/22 the SPX low was just above the .618 retracement  level. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “Day of Decision – 09/02/22“

Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) early in the 08/26/22 session made a marginal new high for the rally that began on 08/24/22.  Triggered by comments from FOMC chairman Powell – US stocks then fell sharply.  The start of major bear wave down?  Indicators and Fibonacci retracement  levels reveal some fascinating clues. The daily SPX chart courtesyContinue reading “Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22“

Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The previous blog “Declining into a Value Area – 08/22/22 presented evidence that US stocks could be finding support on either 08/22/22 or 08/23/22.  A  bottom was made on 08/24/22 just slightly below the area illustrated on the SP – E-Mini continuous chart.  There’s a good chance that a multi-day rally may have commenced. TheContinue reading “Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22“

Declining into a Value Area – 8/22/22

On 08/22/22 US stocks had a sharp and deep decline, the low of the day was just above a Volume Profile – value area.  Its possible the decline ended on 08/22/22 or could  end on 08/23/22.  The Volume Profile method illustrates volume on a vertical axis  that shows where the heaviest volume was related toContinue reading “Declining into a Value Area – 8/22/22“

Stocks Nearing an Important Top? – 08/12/22

Stocks in the second half of August can sometimes  form important tops.  Two prominent examples  are the peaks US stocks made in August 1929 and August 1987.  The subsequent declines were rapid and deep.  Evidence is  mounting that an important stock market  top could be forming  in August 2022.  The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chartContinue reading “Stocks Nearing an Important Top? – 08/12/22“