Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Nasdaq New High Non-Confirmation

On 01/22/21 the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made a new all-time high which was not confirmed by the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), a bearish divergence.  I call this a “Rule of the majority” signal, meaning the true trend is with the two non-confirming indices. This signal can occur at minor,Continue reading “Nasdaq New High Non-Confirmation”

Bearish Momentum for US Stocks

Today 01/21/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) made a marginal new all-time high. While doing this both external and internal momentum indicators gave clear bearish signals. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates external momentum indicators. The daily RSI now has a double bearish divergence.  The daily MACD has bearish divergences on lines andContinue reading “Bearish Momentum for US Stocks”

VIX Continues to Give a Bearish Signal

Today 01/20/21 the S&P 500 SPX made another new all-time high while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continued to give a bearish divergence vs. its late November 2020 bottom.  This divergence was noted in the 01/09/21 post “Early January  Sentiment and Momentum Signals”. Today the VIX held at the same level 21.40 as made atContinue reading “VIX Continues to Give a Bearish Signal”

Consumer Staple Fund – XLP – Update

The 10/11/20 post “Clearest Elliott Wave Road Map” examined the Consumer Staple- Exchange Traded Fund (XLP) as a guide for timing the broader US stock market.  XLP continues to have a clear Elliott Wave count.  The decline since the November peak has been slow and shallow, which is the signature of a corrective pattern inContinue reading “Consumer Staple Fund – XLP – Update”

Analogy Between S&P 500 in 2010 and 2021

The actions of the S&P 500 (SPX) in early 2010 could provide a road map for January to February 2021. The current SPX bull move began in March 2020 which corresponds with the March low in 2009, the rally off that major bottom was powerful and had two peaks, January, and  April 2010. The dailyContinue reading “Analogy Between S&P 500 in 2010 and 2021”

Top For US Stocks Could be in Place

The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to have completed an Elliott impulse wave up from the important 10/30/20 bottom at 3233.94.  If so, we could expect to see at least a retracement of the movement from 10/30/20 to 01/08/21. If this bull movement is a wave “one” the most likely retracement for wave “two” is aContinue reading “Top For US Stocks Could be in Place”

Long-Term Price and Time Targets

The following monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chart courtesy of Trading View  is an update to the monthly DJI chart illustrated in the 08/22/20 post “Forecast – Bull Market Termination Date – 2021” The time forecast is based upon the Fibonacci sequence which is ( 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34,Continue reading “Long-Term Price and Time Targets”

Early January Sentiment and Momentum Signals

The 01/06/21 post “S&P 500 Target Reached- Take Profits and Go Short” noted that evidence from three market dimensions, price, time, and momentum indicated at least a short-term US stock market peak could be developing.  Now, evidence from the sentiment dimension bolsters the probably of an approaching decline. Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility IndexContinue reading “Early January Sentiment and Momentum Signals”

S&P 500 Target Reached – Take Profits and Go Short

From  March 2009 to January 2010 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a growth rate of 72.5%. Projecting that portion of the secular bull market kickoff phase to the supposed termination phase that began in March 2020 targeted SPX 3781. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates bearish momentum divergences. Today 01/06/21 the SPXContinue reading “S&P 500 Target Reached – Take Profits and Go Short”