Probable Short-Term US Stock Market Bottom 03-25-21

Today 03/25/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed at 3853.50. My 03/23/21 blog “Crash Bottom Anniversary Day” speculated that Minor wave “4’” of an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle could be developing. Today’s low was in the middle of the target zone illustrated on the SPX 03/23/21 chart and close to a Fibonacci .50 retrace of the supposed Minor wave “3”.

The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows the progress of the decline and subsequent reversal.

The exact .50 retrace of the supposed  Minor wave “3” is 3853.61 today’s bottom was only .11 below  a direct hit.  Hourly Stochastic had a bullish crossover in the oversold zone. Hourly RSI hit 28.61 – marginally into the oversold zone.

If Minor wave “5” began today there’s a high probability the SPX could make at least a marginal new all-time high.  Major Fibonacci resistance is at SPX 4008. Its common for fifth waves of Ending Diagonal Triangles to slightly break above the trend line connecting the termination points of waves “one” and “three”.  If the SPX makes a new all-time high the trend line may not be breached.  I’m guessing the crowd could be expecting  the  SPX  to reach the magic 4000 number. I suspect the SPX could come close but not reach 4000 faking out many of the bulls.

                                        

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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