Mark Rivest

Bitcoin Horizontal Triangle

The 05/30/21 blog “The Quiet Before the Storm” illustrated two Elliott wave counts for Bitcoin in US dollars (BTCUSD). It now appears the alternate wave count is forming and the BTCUSD 05/19/21 bottom was Minor wave “3”. The subsequent Minor wave “4” correction looks like a developing an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. The dailyContinue reading “Bitcoin Horizontal Triangle”

Ninety Seven Percent Retracement

Just after the open on 06/01/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) reached 4234.12 which is a 97.8% retracement of the decline from 4238.04 to 4056.88. The maximum retracement of the supposed impulse wave down from 4238.04 is 99.9%, in Elliott wave rules a 100% retracement would eliminate the bearish wave count. The 30-minute SPX chart courtesyContinue reading “Ninety Seven Percent Retracement”

The Quiet Before the Storm?

During the prior three trading days the three main US stock indices slowly climbed higher and have remained below their all-time highs. Most likely this is the first rally within a developing bear market. The trigger for the next stock market drop could come from the Bitcoin market. The daily Bitcoin in US dollars (BTCUSD)Continue reading “The Quiet Before the Storm?”

Continuing Counter Trend Rally

Recently one of my friends who also analyzes the markets asked me; what was the maximum retracement for Elliott second waves. My answer was 99.9%. Wave “twos” generally have deep retracements, the most common Fibonacci level is .618. Sometimes wave “two’s” can have shallow retracements – there’re in the minority. The reason wave “twos”Continue reading “Continuing Counter Trend Rally”

Entering the Bearish Season

The US stock market is seasonally bullish from November into late April/early May. From 2009 to 2020 the S&P 500 (SPX) recorded five intermediate peaks in the late April/early May time zone. The SPX 2021 high was on 05/07/21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peak was 05/10/21. The subsequent smooth and steady decline appears toContinue reading “Entering the Bearish Season”

Next Wave Down Likely Underway 05-19-21

The S&P 500 (SPX) opened the 05/19/21 session down sharply and below the supposed “b” wave low of a rising Elliott wave – Single Zigzag. A 25% short of non-leveraged SPX related funds was initiated at the opening SPX price of 4073.77. Use a move above SPX 4207.90 as the stop loss for the 25%Continue reading “Next Wave Down Likely Underway 05-19-21”

Bitcoin Relationship to US Stocks

The 02/15/21 blog “Using Bitcoin as an Indicator for the US Stock Market” examined the relationship between Bitcoin in US Dollars (BTCUSD) and the S&P 500 (SPX). The weekly BTCUSD/SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the relationship. The most striking feature of this chart is the dramatic BTCUSD bull move from March 2020 toContinue reading “Bitcoin Relationship to US Stocks”

Lack of Harmony

The two-day rally of US stocks looks impressive in terms of the S&P 500 (SPX) which has risen 69% from its late 05/12/21 bottom. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has climbed 58%, and most significantly the Nasdaq Composite is up only 37%. The 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates theContinue reading “Lack of Harmony”

Clear Bearish Elliott Wave Pattern

The 05/12/21 blog “The First Downside Target For US Stocks” noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) decline from the 05/07/21 peak appeared to be an Elliott five-wave impulse pattern. The rally on 05/13/21 confirmed the impulse wave was complete. The 30-minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action. The 30-minute SPX chartContinue reading “Clear Bearish Elliott Wave Pattern”

The First Downside Target For US Stocks

The US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (SPX) could be in the first 10% decline since the September 2020. The turn down from SPX peak on 05/07/21 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average top on 05/10/21 has been strong and steady. The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustratesContinue reading “The First Downside Target For US Stocks”