The 06/24//21 blog noted “If the SPX makes a marginal new high unconfirmed by the IXIC and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a higher VIX bottom, it could be the end of the persistent rally.”
The daily VIX/SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened on 06/25/21.
The S&P 500 (SPX) made a marginal new high with a higher VIX bottom. Additionally, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to make new all-time highs.
There’s a good chance 06/28/21 could be the start of at least a short-term decline. Note what happened after the prior two VIX/SPX bear signals on 05/07/21 and 06/15/21.
Internal momentum for the US stock market has reached the level of “ludicrously bearish”. The next blog will examine several internal momentum indicators.
2 thoughts on “Two – Bearish Signals”
A very important VIX observation.
If VIX were to break below the Weekly Low of 14.21, from f 2/17/20,
just prior to the Covid stock market crash of March 2020,
then it would have unwound all the gains it had since that important bottom,
and could be a confirming significant Buy” Signal for the S+P 500.
and a Sell Signal for the VIX, potentially taking this index back to the 4/15/19 low of 11.95
Yes, that could happen, current momentum evidence is very bearish and argues against that possibility. If within the next few trading days momentum was to become more bullish, it could increase the probabilities for a higher SPX.