Rally into Major Fibonacci Resistance

The 06/16/21 blog  Major “S&P 500 Price and Time Targets – 06-16-21” noted  that the S&P 500 (SPX) had major Fibonacci resistance at 4262 and 4274. Today 06/24/21 the SPX reached 4271 within the area of the two Fibonacci points.

On the bullish side of the coin VIX  made a new low and is potentially bullish.  However, the bullish move could be marginal.  The 06/13/21 blog “Bullish VIX Signal” noted the SPX could make a new high.  It did, the move up was tiny and terminated with a short-term peak on 06/15/21.

Another potential bullish signal was the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) making a new all-time high along with the SPX.  This is a bullish “rule of the majority signal”. Short-term the IXIC has a bearish intraday Elliott wave count. 

The IXIC – one – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action.

There’s a clear Elliott five -wave impulse down from the 06/24/21 high, followed by a rally into a .618 retracement of the decline. 

If  the SPX makes a marginal new high unconfirmed by the IXIC and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a higher VIX bottom, it could be the end of the persistent rally.

Traders are short 100% non-leveraged SPX related funds from the open of the SPX 06/21/21 session.  Hold short with a stop loss on 50% of the position on an SPX move above 4290. Use a move above SPX 4310 as a stop loss on the remaining position.

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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