The 06/16/21 blog Major “S&P 500 Price and Time Targets – 06-16-21” noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) had major Fibonacci resistance at 4262 and 4274. Today 06/24/21 the SPX reached 4271 within the area of the two Fibonacci points.
On the bullish side of the coin VIX made a new low and is potentially bullish. However, the bullish move could be marginal. The 06/13/21 blog “Bullish VIX Signal” noted the SPX could make a new high. It did, the move up was tiny and terminated with a short-term peak on 06/15/21.
Another potential bullish signal was the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) making a new all-time high along with the SPX. This is a bullish “rule of the majority signal”. Short-term the IXIC has a bearish intraday Elliott wave count.
The IXIC – one – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action.
There’s a clear Elliott five -wave impulse down from the 06/24/21 high, followed by a rally into a .618 retracement of the decline.
If the SPX makes a marginal new high unconfirmed by the IXIC and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a higher VIX bottom, it could be the end of the persistent rally.
Traders are short 100% non-leveraged SPX related funds from the open of the SPX 06/21/21 session. Hold short with a stop loss on 50% of the position on an SPX move above 4290. Use a move above SPX 4310 as a stop loss on the remaining position.