Mark Rivest

Momentum Continues to Deteriorate

As the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) continue to climb, internal momentum indicators are becoming more bearish. The 06/29/21 blog “Historical Perspective of Stock Market Momentum” illustrated the Bullish Percentage Index for the SPX ($BPSPX). The daily $BPSPX chart courtesy of StockCharts.com shows the activity as of 07/09/21. On 07/08/21 $BPSPX made aContinue reading “Momentum Continues to Deteriorate”

Lunar Cycles – 2021

Full/New moons can occasionally signal turns in almost all markets. For stocks, new moons tend to signal tops. Full moons tend to signal bottoms. Lunar cycle signals appear more frequently when markets are in a multi-month sideway movements. Far fewer signals appear when markets are in steady up or down trends. The daily S&P 500Continue reading “Lunar Cycles – 2021”

Explanation of a Micro – Crash

I’m guessing to many, today’s opening micro crash in US stocks was a big surprise . Those observing the extremely bearish Nasdaq – Advance/Decline line and new 52 -week highs for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite it could have been expected. The SPX 5-minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates a possible short-term Elliott waveContinue reading “Explanation of a Micro – Crash”

The Next S&P 500 Resistance Level

Within Elliott motive waves there’s usually a price and or time relationship between waves “one” and “five”. The most common relationship is the Fibonacci ratio of 1/1 – equality. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates a presume Elliott five – wave motive pattern under development since March 2009. WhenContinue reading “The Next S&P 500 Resistance Level”

Consumer Staples Fund – Update July 2021

The 04/26/21 blog “Struggling to Rally” speculated that the Consumers Staples Fund (XLP) had completed an Elliott five – wave impulse pattern from the 03/23/20 bottom. Subsequently XLP moved to a new all-time high and peaked on 06/04/21. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the updated Elliott wave count. Usually within motive wavesContinue reading “Consumer Staples Fund – Update July 2021”

Could US Stocks Rally Until August 2021?

Typically, “window dressing” occurs on the last trading day of a quarter. Stock fund managers buy top performing stocks on the last trading day of the quarter to show they have these winners in their portfolios. This usually causes an upward move in at least one of the three main indices. The S&P 500 (SPX)Continue reading “Could US Stocks Rally Until August 2021?”

End of the Quarter – End of the Bull Market?

Today 06/30/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) – a “rule of the majority sell signal”. Additionally, the VIX made a higher bottom vs. the SPX new high, a bearish signal. For the last few months there have been severalContinue reading “End of the Quarter – End of the Bull Market?”

Historical Perspective of Stock Market Momentum

The momentum of stock markets can be examined by external indicators that measure price. Some of the external momentum indicators are Stochastic and RSI. Internal momentum indicators measure components of stock indices, such as Advanced/Decline lines and 52 – week Highs/Lows. The 06/28/21 blog examined recent deterioration of new – 52 – week highs forContinue reading “Historical Perspective of Stock Market Momentum”

Collapsing New – 52 – Week Highs

In the later stage of stock bull markets there’s usually a deterioration of stocks making new – 52 – week highs. At some point there are not enough stocks making new highs and the overall stock market goes into an intermediate degree correction or a bear market. The daily chart of NYSE New – 52Continue reading “Collapsing New – 52 – Week Highs”

Two – Bearish Signals

The 06/24//21 blog noted “If the SPX makes a marginal new high unconfirmed by the IXIC and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a higher VIX bottom, it could be the end of the persistent rally.” The daily VIX/SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened on 06/25/21. The S&P 500 (SPX) made aContinue reading “Two – Bearish Signals”