Within the last few weeks followers of this site have messaged me asking. When will the crash come? Why are the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) still climbing? Who’s buying stocks? These are understandable questions since the US stock market has continued to climb in the face of enormous bearish evidence. Large stock market stocks develop slowly. In December 1999, a case could have been made that US stocks were topping; the final peak came in March 2000. In July 2007 it looked like a final top for US stocks, they made another new high in October 2007.
Today 07/13/21 the SPX made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the IXIC and Dow Jones Industrial Average – a rule of the majority sell signal. The VIX made a higher bottom vs. the SPX new all-time high – a bearish signal. Today’s SPX new high was three – trading days after a full moon, outside the two-trading day plus/minus leeway I use for lunar signals. The balance of evidence from these three signals is bearish.
Something else bearish happened today. The SPX made a new high and closed the session up 0.12%. The NYSE had 36% stocks advancing vs. 61% stocks declining – incredible!
The 15-minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the short-term Elliott wave count illustrated in the 07/08/21 blog “Explanation of a Micro – Crash”.
A clear Elliott five-wave impulse pattern. Supporting the pattern is a Fibonacci ratio relationship of equality between Minute waves “ii” and “iv”.
Be patient, perhaps in the near future the bulls will be asking “When will the stock market go up?”.