Mark Rivest

S&P 500 – Downside Target Zone

Today’s – 07/19/21 sharp decline broke below the micro-crash bottom made on 07/08/21 and could be the kickoff of a larger developing drop. Momentum evidence supports this theory. Daily RSI is 43%, the oversold zone begins at 30%. Daily MACD had a bearish line crossover. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “S&P 500 – Downside Target Zone”

Leading to the Downside

This sites 7/10/21 post “Momentum Continues to Deteriorate” illustrated the Nasdaq Composite – Advance/Decline line ($NAAD) had bearish momentum divergences. A case can be made that this indicator along with another A/D line are leading US stocks lower. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the NYSE Composite (NYA), S&P 500 (SPX), and NasdaqContinue reading “Leading to the Downside”

When Will the Stock Market Go Down?

Within the last few weeks followers of this site have messaged me asking. When will the crash come? Why are the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) still climbing? Who’s buying stocks? These are understandable questions since the US stock market has continued to climb in the face of enormous bearish evidence. Large stockContinue reading “When Will the Stock Market Go Down?”

S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 07-09-21

The 07/05/21 blog “The Next S&P 500 Resistance Level” noted that the next S&P 500 (SPX) resistance level could be at 4437. This level was derived by comparing the growth of the SPX rally from March 2009 to April 2010 with the SPX rally since March 2020. There’s another resistance level calculated solely from theContinue reading “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 07-09-21”

Bearish External Momentum Indicators

The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates two external momentum indicators. The highest weekly RSI reading for the entire secular bull market 2009 to 2021 occurred at the January 2018 peak. Subsequently there was a double bearish divergence at the February 2020 top. followed by a one-month crash. The maximum RSIContinue reading “Bearish External Momentum Indicators”

Momentum Continues to Deteriorate

As the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) continue to climb, internal momentum indicators are becoming more bearish. The 06/29/21 blog “Historical Perspective of Stock Market Momentum” illustrated the Bullish Percentage Index for the SPX ($BPSPX). The daily $BPSPX chart courtesy of StockCharts.com shows the activity as of 07/09/21. On 07/08/21 $BPSPX made aContinue reading “Momentum Continues to Deteriorate”

Lunar Cycles – 2021

Full/New moons can occasionally signal turns in almost all markets. For stocks, new moons tend to signal tops. Full moons tend to signal bottoms. Lunar cycle signals appear more frequently when markets are in a multi-month sideway movements. Far fewer signals appear when markets are in steady up or down trends. The daily S&P 500Continue reading “Lunar Cycles – 2021”

Explanation of a Micro – Crash

I’m guessing to many, today’s opening micro crash in US stocks was a big surprise . Those observing the extremely bearish Nasdaq – Advance/Decline line and new 52 -week highs for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite it could have been expected. The SPX 5-minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates a possible short-term Elliott waveContinue reading “Explanation of a Micro – Crash”

The Next S&P 500 Resistance Level

Within Elliott motive waves there’s usually a price and or time relationship between waves “one” and “five”. The most common relationship is the Fibonacci ratio of 1/1 – equality. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates a presume Elliott five – wave motive pattern under development since March 2009. WhenContinue reading “The Next S&P 500 Resistance Level”

Consumer Staples Fund – Update July 2021

The 04/26/21 blog “Struggling to Rally” speculated that the Consumers Staples Fund (XLP) had completed an Elliott five – wave impulse pattern from the 03/23/20 bottom. Subsequently XLP moved to a new all-time high and peaked on 06/04/21. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the updated Elliott wave count. Usually within motive wavesContinue reading “Consumer Staples Fund – Update July 2021”