On 09/07/21 the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). I refer to this as a “Rule of the majority” signal. When one of the three main US stock indices makes a new high/low unconfirmed by the other two main indices, the true direction is with the unconfirming indices. In this case the direction is down.
New/Full moons occasionally can signal market turns. For stocks New moons usually signal tops.
The SPX 5 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the recent action.
It appears the SPX may have completed an Elliott Wave – Horizontal Triangle in the Minor wave “4” position. What followed is very rare. Normally after completion of a Horizontal Triangle there’s a thrust in the direction of the prior primary trend. Almost always the thrust moves beyond the point of origin of the Horizontal Triangle. In this case it appears the post triangle move was a Truncated Minor wave “5”.
There are Fibonacci relationships within the supposed Horizontal Triangle. Minute wave “b” is 1.382 of Minute wave “a”. Minute wave “a” is almost equal to Minute wave “c”. Minute wave “d” is about 50% of Minute wave “b”. Minute wave “e” is .236 of Minute wave “c”.
What came after the supposed Truncated Minor wave “5” appears to be a bearish Elliott wave series of waves “one’s “ and “two’s”. This wave count implies a sharp downside acceleration.
Other markets appear to have been affected by the gravitational influences of the new moon.
The daily chart of Bitcoin in US Dollars(BTCUSD) and Gold (GC2!) illustrates the action of those markets.
BTCUSD had a very strong downside reaction and has had other instances in which New moons have signaled tops.
Gold had a smaller move down.
There could be at least an intermediate SPX top in place as of the 09/02/21 high.
Short 100% non-leverage SPX related funds on the SPX open 09/09/21 Use a stop loss for 50% of the position on a move above the all-time high at 4545.85. Use a move above SPX 4610.00 as a stop on the second half of the position.