Mark Rivest

Rising Short-Term Interest Rates

Money goes to where its treated best. In the US since early 2020 with extremely low interest rates/yields on US Treasury bonds/notes, the stock market has offered the best place for investment capital. Stocks could soon have competition in the form of rising interest rates. At some point stock fund managers could be motivated toContinue reading “Rising Short-Term Interest Rates”

Consumer Staples Fund on Track for Potential Major Top – December 2021

Several blogs have illustrated that the SPDR Consumer Staples fund – (XLP) since March 2020 has a clear Elliott wave pattern. The most recent post was 07/03/21 “Consumer Staples Fund – Update July 2021” and noted that XLP could have completed an Elliott five-wave impulse pattern from March 2020 to June 2021. Subsequent to theContinue reading “Consumer Staples Fund on Track for Potential Major Top – December 2021”

Possible S&P 500 – Price Topping Zone

The 10/24/21 Blog “Possible US Stock Market Top – December 2021” used Fibonacci Time cycles to forecast a possible significant top for US stocks sometime in December 2021. This blog uses Fibonacci price analysis on the S&P 500 (SPX) to discover a possible major top of the bull market that began March 2009. When makingContinue reading “Possible S&P 500 – Price Topping Zone”

US Stocks Could be Blasting into a December 2021 Top

As the US stock market entered November 2021 it appeared due for a correction lasting one to two weeks. What happen was a continuation of the manic rally that began on 10/13/21. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the recent action. The best SPX – Elliott wave count since theContinue reading “US Stocks Could be Blasting into a December 2021 Top”

Deteriorating Bullish Momentum

The 10/29/21 blog noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) reached short-term Fibonacci resistance, this blog focuses on the internal momentum of the US stock market. The NYSE – new – 52 – weeks highs chart ($MAHX) courtesy of Barcharts.com shows the action since May 2021. The SPX 09/02/21 all-time high had a significant bearish divergenceContinue reading ” Deteriorating Bullish Momentum”

S & P 500 at Short-Term Resistance

The 10/22/21 blog “Hourly Bearish Divergences” noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Running Horizontal Triangle, in this structure wave “B” marginally exceeds the Horizonal Triangle point of origin. In this case the SPX 09/02/21 peak. The most common Fibonacci relationship between waves “B” and “A” of a RunningContinue reading “S & P 500 at Short-Term Resistance”

How to Find Support Levels Using Fibonacci Analysis with Point & Figure Charts

Today 10/27/21 was the first significant down day for the S&P 500 (SPX) since the rally began on 10/13/21. Assuming the rally is complete the combination of Point & Figure charting and Fibonacci retracement analysis is an effective method to discover potential support levels. Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X’s and O’sContinue reading “How to Find Support Levels Using Fibonacci Analysis with Point & Figure Charts”

Examination of US Stock Market November Seasonal Patterns

This blog is the first in a series examining the November seasonal patterns of the US stock market. November is the most bullish month for US stocks, it has the greatest percentage of closing the month higher than the open than any other month. The action of the S&P 500 (SPX) in November 2020 isContinue reading ” Examination of US Stock Market November Seasonal Patterns”

Possible US Stock Market Top – December 2021

The 08/22/20 blog “Forecast – Bull Market Termination Date – 2021” illustrated a fascinating web of Fibonacci time relationships connecting major Dow Jones Industrial Average tops/bottoms going back eighty-nine years. These time relationships pointed to a potential turn in 2021. This type of time forecasts does not predict a top or a bottom, only aContinue reading “Possible US Stock Market Top – December 2021”

Comparison of Crude Oil and the US Stock Market

For several months evidence has suggested the US stock market could be approaching the end of the bull run since at least March 2020. A long-term comparison of the S&P 500 (SPX) with Crude Oil – WTI (CL2!) may give us a preview of what could happen in the next few months. The monthly CL2!Continue reading “Comparison of Crude Oil and the US Stock Market”