Author Archives: Mark Rivest

S&P 500 – Second Upside Target

Never underestimate the persistance of a stock bull market or a stock bear market rally. To gain a perspective on the persistence of a stock bull market we need to examine the secular US stock bull market that lasted  thirteen years  from October 1987 to March 2000. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy ofContinue reading “S&P 500 – Second Upside Target”

S&P 500 – First Upside Target

The S&P 500 (SPX) turn on 09/06/22 appears  to be the beginning of at least a multi- week rally.  Daily momentum indicators provide guidance to determine the first upside target. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  three external momentum indicators. The daily Stochastic has a bullish lines crossover and has yet to reachContinue reading “S&P 500 – First Upside Target”

Excessive Bearish Sentiment

The 09/01/22 blog “Day of Decision -09-02-22” illustrated that The S&P 500 (SPX) 09/01/22 bottom was made without an  hourly RSI bullish divergence. The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action of the RSI indicator.  On 09/06/22 the SPX broke below the 09/01/22 bottom. It also  marginally broke  below the rising  trendlineContinue reading “Excessive Bearish Sentiment”

Rally and Retracement

The prior blog “Day of Decision  – 09/02/22” noted that the US monthly payroll report release on 09/02/22 could decide the near-term direction for US stocks. The reaction to the payroll report was bullish and the S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 1.3% above the 09/01/22 closing level.   Then one – hour after the SPX 09/02/22Continue reading “Rally and Retracement”

Day of Decision – 09/02/22

The 08/29/22 blog “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two” noted the next most likely support level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was at the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the 06/17/22 to 08/16/22 rally. On 09/01/22 the SPX low was just above the .618 retracement  level. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “Day of Decision – 09/02/22“

Dramatic Decline – Part – Two

Today 08/29/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below the .382 Fibonacci support level; also, bullish momentum divergence were eliminated.  This opens the door for lower prices. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates  the next near – term support levels. The Fibonacci .50  level is usually a weak support/resistance level.  The Fibonacci .618Continue reading “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two“

Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) early in the 08/26/22 session made a marginal new high for the rally that began on 08/24/22.  Triggered by comments from FOMC chairman Powell – US stocks then fell sharply.  The start of major bear wave down?  Indicators and Fibonacci retracement  levels reveal some fascinating clues. The daily SPX chart courtesyContinue reading “Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22“

Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The previous blog “Declining into a Value Area – 08/22/22 presented evidence that US stocks could be finding support on either 08/22/22 or 08/23/22.  A  bottom was made on 08/24/22 just slightly below the area illustrated on the SP – E-Mini continuous chart.  There’s a good chance that a multi-day rally may have commenced. TheContinue reading “Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22“

Declining into a Value Area – 8/22/22

On 08/22/22 US stocks had a sharp and deep decline, the low of the day was just above a Volume Profile – value area.  Its possible the decline ended on 08/22/22 or could  end on 08/23/22.  The Volume Profile method illustrates volume on a vertical axis  that shows where the heaviest volume was related toContinue reading “Declining into a Value Area – 8/22/22“