Mark Rivest

A Review of Sentiment Indicators – 9/16/22

A through analysis of any market requires the examination of all four market dimensions, price, time, sentiment and momentum. The weight of evidence could help determine a markets probable course. Each dimension has various factors to be weighed. This blog focus is on the sentiment dimension. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading ” A Review of Sentiment Indicators – 9/16/22″

Erratic Price Movements

From 09/06/22 to 09/12/22 US stocks had a strong and steady rally. Then in two trading days the move up was nearly wiped out. The first phase of a larger developing decline? An examination of momentum indicators argue against this theory. In stock bull markets rallies are normally slow and steady. Declines usually don’t exceedContinue reading “Erratic Price Movements”

S&P 500 – Second Upside Target

Never underestimate the persistance of a stock bull market or a stock bear market rally. To gain a perspective on the persistence of a stock bull market we need to examine the secular US stock bull market that lasted thirteen years from October 1987 to March 2000. The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy ofContinue reading “S&P 500 – Second Upside Target”

S&P 500 – First Upside Target

The S&P 500 (SPX) turn on 09/06/22 appears to be the beginning of at least a multi- week rally. Daily momentum indicators provide guidance to determine the first upside target. The daily chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates three external momentum indicators. The daily Stochastic has a bullish lines crossover and has yet to reachContinue reading “S&P 500 – First Upside Target”

Excessive Bearish Sentiment

The 09/01/22 blog “Day of Decision -09-02-22” illustrated that The S&P 500 (SPX) 09/01/22 bottom was made without an hourly RSI bullish divergence. The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action of the RSI indicator. On 09/06/22 the SPX broke below the 09/01/22 bottom. It also marginally broke below the rising trendlineContinue reading “Excessive Bearish Sentiment”

Rally and Retracement

The prior blog “Day of Decision – 09/02/22” noted that the US monthly payroll report release on 09/02/22 could decide the near-term direction for US stocks. The reaction to the payroll report was bullish and the S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 1.3% above the 09/01/22 closing level. Then one – hour after the SPX 09/02/22Continue reading “Rally and Retracement”

Day of Decision – 09/02/22

The 08/29/22 blog “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two” noted the next most likely support level for the S&P 500 (SPX) was at the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the 06/17/22 to 08/16/22 rally. On 09/01/22 the SPX low was just above the .618 retracement level. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “Day of Decision – 09/02/22“

Dramatic Decline – Part – Two

Today 08/29/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below the .382 Fibonacci support level; also, bullish momentum divergence were eliminated. This opens the door for lower prices. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the next near – term support levels. The Fibonacci .50 level is usually a weak support/resistance level. The Fibonacci .618Continue reading “Dramatic Decline – Part – Two“

Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) early in the 08/26/22 session made a marginal new high for the rally that began on 08/24/22. Triggered by comments from FOMC chairman Powell – US stocks then fell sharply. The start of major bear wave down? Indicators and Fibonacci retracement levels reveal some fascinating clues. The daily SPX chart courtesyContinue reading “Dramatic Decline – 08/26/22“

Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22

The previous blog “Declining into a Value Area – 08/22/22 presented evidence that US stocks could be finding support on either 08/22/22 or 08/23/22. A bottom was made on 08/24/22 just slightly below the area illustrated on the SP – E-Mini continuous chart. There’s a good chance that a multi-day rally may have commenced. TheContinue reading “Rising From a Value Area – 08/25/22“