Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Momentum and Sentiment Update – 10/14/22

Weekly momentum and daily sentiment indicators show that stock market bears could be losing  strength. The blog “Dramatic Reversal – 10/13/22”  noted that S&P 500 (SPX) daily Stochastic, RSI , and MACD all had bullish divergences.  Longer – term momentum oscillators  also have bullish divergences. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrate the additionalContinue reading “Momentum and Sentiment Update – 10/14/22“

Fascinating Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships – 10/14/22

The S&P 500 (SPX) action into the 10/13/14 bottom reveals  clues  that the decline from the 08/16/22 peak could be part of a larger developing Elliott wave pattern. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates Fibonacci price and time relationships. The SPX rally from 06/17/22 to the peak on 08/16/22 took 40 –Continue reading “Fascinating Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships – 10/14/22“

Support Break – 10/11/22

Today 10/11/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) joined the Nasdaq Composite in making  new bear market lows.  The SPX support break invalidates the Elliott wave – Expanding Flat formation noted in the “Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish  Interpretations – 09/30/22” blog.  The door could now be open for a rapid one- or two-week SPX drop to theContinue reading “Support Break – 10/11/22”

The Relationship Between US Stocks and Crude Oil

The US stock market and Crude Oil – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have similar seasonal patterns, specifically both tend to trend down from September to October. Crude Oil’s  powerful move up from its  late September 2022 bottom could continue through October and perhaps longer.  This  counter seasonal move up could be a hint for aContinue reading “The Relationship Between US Stocks and Crude Oil“

Russell 2000 – Bullish Signal

In late September 2022 the Russell 2000 (RUT) small cap stock index bottomed before the S&P 500 (SPX). After the 09/30/22 SPX bottom, RUT rallied  higher relative to the SPX.  Then on 10/07/22 during a large decline in US stocks, RUT fell less relative to the SPX. The 30- minute SPX and RUT chart courtesyContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Bullish Signal”

Russell 2000 Leading the Way Up – 10/04/22

During late September 2022 the Russell 2000 (RUT) index of small cap stocks struggled to go lower.  Now in early October its leading US stocks higher.  A  review of external momentum indicators imply the rally could continue for several weeks. The daily RUT chart courtesy of Trading View updates the price and momentum action. OnContinue reading “Russell 2000 Leading the Way Up – 10/04/22“

Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish Interpretations – 09/30/22

As of 09/30/22 momentum and sentiment evidence implied the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming a double bottom vs. its mid – June 2022 low.  This blog examines  two possible Elliott wave alternate bullish counts. In Elliott wave theory there are always at least two alternate wave counts, bearish and bullish. Frequently there can beContinue reading “Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish Interpretations – 09/30/22“

Curious Non – Confirmation – Part Two

The 09/28/22 blog concluded with this note, “It’s too soon to declare a double bottom is  in place vs. the June bottoms.  Let’s see what the bears can do on 09/29/22.”  Subsequently the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made new bear market lows while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Russell 2000Continue reading “Curious Non – Confirmation – Part Two”

Curious Non – Confirmation

On 09/27/22 within the time window for a possible lunar turn signal, the S&P 500 (SPX) marginally broke below its 06/17/22 bottom.  The SPX breakthrough was the second of the three main US stock indices to make a new bear market low – a bearish confirming signal. However, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) did not makeContinue reading “Curious Non – Confirmation”