Mark Rivest

Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks – Part Two

Today 10/19/23 the yields for 5, 10, and 30 – year U.S. government debt made new 2023 highs. Correspondingly U.S. stocks as represented by the S&P 500 (SPX) declined .85%. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the action. At the SPX low on 10/19/23 it had retraced .699 of the rally from 10/03/23Continue reading “Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks – Part Two”

Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks

Today 10/18/23 the U.S. stock market represented by the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.34%. U.S. interest rates represented by the U.S. government 30 – year yields (TYX) climbed .95%. A continuation of this trend during the next two weeks could trigger a mini crash for U.S. stocks. The 10/15/23 blog “Catalyst for a Stock MarketContinue reading “Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks”

Catalyst for a Stock Market Panic

A sudden move up in longer-term U.S. interest rates/yields could trigger a panic in U.S. stocks. For several months the Elliott wave patterns for the U.S. 30- year Treasury Yields (TYX) have been exceptionally clear. The 09/21/23 blog “Upside Target for U.S. Treasury Yield” noted that TYX could continue climbing into mid or late OctoberContinue reading “Catalyst for a Stock Market Panic”

Crude Oil Shorting Opportunity – 10/13/23

The 09/17/23 blog “Crude Oil Elliott Wave Pattern – 09/15/23” noted a potential broad topping zone for Crude Oil between 91.50 to 94.80. The 09/27/23 blog “Crude Oil Topping Zone” noted Crude Oil could reach a rising trendline in the 92 area on 09/28/23 or 09/29/23. The 09/28/23 blog “Probable Crude Oil Top – 09/28/23”Continue reading “Crude Oil Shorting Opportunity – 10/13/23”

Dramatic Bearish Reversal for U.S. Stocks – 10/12/23

The prior blog “S&P 500 – Rallies Deep into Resistance Zone – 10/11/23” noted. (The sharp S&P 500 (SPX) rally could be nearing a top. Action on 10/12/23 could determine if it’s a top in a bear market rally or a signal to move higher.) Today 10/12/23 the SPX moved marginally above the high madeContinue reading “Dramatic Bearish Reversal for U.S. Stocks – 10/12/23”

S&P 500 – Rallies Deep into Resistance Zone – 10/11/23

The sharp S&P 500 (SPX) rally could be nearing a top. Action on 10/12/23 could determine if it’s a top in a bear market rally or a signal to move higher. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com updates the action. The 10/07/23 blog “Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks?” illustrated SPX – Fibonacci resistance atContinue reading “S&P 500 – Rallies Deep into Resistance Zone – 10/11/23”

More Bullish Evidence for U.S. Stocks – 10/09/23

The S&P 500 (SPX) opened the 10/09/23 session down 19.47 points. It appeared a significant decline could be developing. After about 80 – minutes the bears were only able to move marginally below the opening bottom. Subsequently there was another relentless rally that continued though most of the session. The daily SPX chart courtesy ofContinue reading “More Bullish Evidence for U.S. Stocks – 10/09/23”

Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks? – Part Two

Additional Evidence that the U.S. stock market could be forming an intermediate bottom. Stock market turns can occur when a stock sector or sectors fail to confirm a new high or low of a market move. A broad example of this phenomenon is what I call a “Rule of the majority” signal. This signal happensContinue reading “Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks? – Part Two”

Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks?

Something happened on 10/06/23 that indicates U.S. stocks may have made an intermediate bottom. One part of the “Volume Profile” analysis method is measuring a markets opening range. The best way to use “Volume Profile” for the S&P 500 (SPX) is to examine the nearest S&P 500 – E – Mini futures contract, currently DecemberContinue reading “Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks?”

Detailed S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Counts – 10/05/23

The S&P 500 (SPX) could be at a crossroads. This blog illustrates two potential Elliott wave count paths. First an illustration of the possible truncated fifth wave that was noted in the prior blog. The 15 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading view shows the Elliott wave subdivisions of the decline from 09/29/23 toContinue reading “Detailed S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Counts – 10/05/23”