Mark Rivest

Treasury Yields Near a Bottom – 12/07/23.

For several months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. stocks and U.S. government debt yields/rates. The recent manic U.S. stock rally since late October corresponds with the U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) decline. Near – term the TYX appears it could be making a bottom. The daily TYX chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “Treasury Yields Near a Bottom – 12/07/23.”

Possible S&P 500 Intermediate Top Made on 12/01/23.

The 11/26/23 “Time Cycle Turn late November 2023” examined a potential S&P 500 – Fibonacci time cycle based on prior peaks and noted. “The week beginning 02/18/20 to the week beginning 01/03/22 is 98 – weeks. Projecting 98 – weeks from 01/03/23 targets the week beginning 11/20/23. On this time scale a leeway of oneContinue reading “Possible S&P 500 Intermediate Top Made on 12/01/23.”

Echo From the Past

The Dow Jones Industrial Average could soon be repeating a pattern from the 1960’s. The action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the week of 11/27/23 to 12/01/23 was like the second stage of a rocket igniting. The daily Dow Jones Industrial Average chart courtesy of BigCharts.com (DJIA) shows what happened. After an alreadyContinue reading “Echo From the Past”

Estimating the Next U.S. Stock Market Top

Evidence from the S&P 500 (SPX) – Slow Stochastic and RSI provide clues to when an important U.S. stock market peak could occur. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com shows what’s happening. On 12/01/23 the Slow Stochastic had a bullish lines cross strongly implying the SPX rally could continue. The bull cross happened whenContinue reading “Estimating the Next U.S. Stock Market Top”

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 11-30-23.

The 11/29/23 blog illustrated the S&P 500 (SPX) appeared have begun an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle that began on 11/28/23 at 4,540.51. Today on 11/30/23 the SPX broke below 4,540.51 invalidating the Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern. The SPX move below 4,540.51 was marginal and appears to have completed an Elliott wave corrective pattern.Continue reading “S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 11-30-23.”

S&P 500 in Terminal Wave Up?

At the open of the 11/29/23 session the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new post 10/27/23 rally high. After 15 minutes the rally was exhausted, and the SPX trended down for the balance of the session. Could this be the start of a significant decline? Perhaps, however the NYSE advance/decline line was bullish, with 59%Continue reading “S&P 500 in Terminal Wave Up?”

Time Cycle Turn – Late November 2023

The 08/03/23 blog “Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy” illustrated an extremely precise Fibonacci time cycle targeting an S&P 500 (SPX) turn on 07/27/23. The SPX 10/13/22 to 07/27/23 rally exactly matched the SPX 01/04/22 to 10/13/22 decline. This precision is very rare, there’s usually leeway around Fibonacci time cycle turns. There could be another FibonacciContinue reading “Time Cycle Turn – Late November 2023”

VIX Makes a New 2023 Low – 11/24/23.

The shorten U.S. stock market session after the Thanksgiving day holiday is usually dull and non-eventful. This year something different happened, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) made a new 2023 low setting up the possibility for a VIX topping signal. The VIX topping signal was noted in the 07/22/23 blog “Momentum and Sentiment Evidence –Continue reading “VIX Makes a New 2023 Low – 11/24/23.”

Potential Stock Rally Climax – 11/22/23

The relentless U.S. stock rally that began on 10/27/23 could be in the climax phase. The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the long-term view. Both weekly Slow Stochastic lines have reached the overbought zone above 80%, implying a top could come soon. However, weekly MACD has a bullish lines cross hinting atContinue reading “Potential Stock Rally Climax – 11/22/23”

Crude Oil Update – 11/20/23

The Crude Oil rally that began on 11/16/23 continued today 11/20/23. The daily Crude Oil continuous contract chart (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View shows what happened. In addition to bullish line crosses for RSI and Stochastic there was also a break above the declining trendline from 10/20/23. Traders exited 50% of a half position ofContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 11/20/23”