Mark Rivest

Apple Inc. Downside Rollover?

The most bearish of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks relative to the S&P 500 (SPX) is Tesla Inc. (TSLA). The next most bearish stock is Apple Inc (AAPL). The action of AAPL from its December 2023 top suggests it could be on the verge of a sharp decline. The weekly AAPL chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “Apple Inc. Downside Rollover?”

Potential S&P 500 Support levels

Assuming the S&P 500 (SPX) 02/12/24 top holds, there are two levels where short-term bottoms could occur. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates Fibonacci retracement levels and Volume Profile.” Fibonacci ratios are typically areas where markets or stocks could retrace to on any time scale. In this case the largest SPX priceContinue reading “Potential S&P 500 Support levels”

Surprising News!

Today 02/13/24 the monthly U.S. CPI report was released and the numbers where higher than expected, triggering a large selloff for U.S. stocks. For those who recently went long U.S. stocks this news was probably an unpleasant surprise. Powerful signals from U.S. stock market sentiment and momentum indicators have been bearish for several weeks. PerhapsContinue reading “Surprising News!”

Russell 2000 – Detailed Elliott Wave Count

The Russell 2000 – small cap stock index (RUT) has lagged the broader U.S. stock market since late 2021. An examination of RUT – Elliott wave count indicates it could be on the precipice of a severe decline. The weekly RUT and S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their ongoing divergence. TheContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Detailed Elliott Wave Count”

U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 02/09/24

On 02/09/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite made new post October 2022 rally highs. Momentum and sentiment readings were extremely bearish suggesting an approaching decline for U.S. stocks. The daily NYSE – 52 – week high ($MAHN) chart courtesy of Barchart.com illustrates internal momentum for the U.S. stock market. As the stock marketContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 02/09/24”

S&P 500 Long – Term Downside Projection

Today February 8, 2024 the S&P 500 (SPX) reached round number resistance at 5,000. On February 9, 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit round number resistance at 1,000 and declined 26% in eight months. Something similar could happen to the U.S. stock market in 2024. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View showsContinue reading “S&P 500 Long – Term Downside Projection”

Nearing an Important Anniversary Date

On February 9. 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) reached 1,001.11, an all-time that terminated a 24 – year secular bull market that began in April 1942. Perhaps the S&P 500 (SPX) could end a 15 – year secular bull market near 5,000 close to or on February 9, 2024. The daily DJI chartContinue reading “Nearing an Important Anniversary Date”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – February 2024

Current U.S. stock market sentiment implies a major top could be forming. There are several ways to measure market sentiment. Examining trader/investor actions such as buying Put or Call options. Another way is by polling trader/investor opinions about a market. The daily CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) chart and S&P 500 chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – February 2024”

The Big Picture for U.S. Stocks – February 2024

As stock bull markets progress, investor optimism grows and usually peaks near market tops. Correspondingly momentum wanes as the stock market climbs. Stocks discount the future, and the stocks of smaller/weaker companies are the first to falter in anticipation of economic weakness. The higher a stock index climbs the number of stocks participating in theContinue reading “The Big Picture for U.S. Stocks – February 2024”

U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 02/01/24

The 12/28/23 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 12/28/23” noted. “An intermediate bottom for 30 – year U.S. Treasury Yields could be in place”. A bottom for the 30- year U.S Treasury Yield (TYX) was in place and the subsequent rally appears to be complete. The next wave downContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 02/01/24”