Mark Rivest

Revised S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Cycle

The 04/21/24 blog “Potential S&P 500 Bottom – Early May 2024” illustrated the S&P 500 could make an important bottom on 05/03/24. The size of the S&P 500 (SPX) rally since 04/19/24 makes that forecasted bottom date a low probability. If the SPX resumes its decline 05/17/24 could mark a significant bottom. The daily SPXContinue reading “Revised S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Cycle”

Watch the U.S. Treasury 5 – Year Yield

For several months the focus has been on when the U.S – FOMC will cut short -term interest rates. In the meantime, rates/yields have been rising on long term – 5-to-30-year U.S. Treasury securities. The monthly 5 – year Treasury yield (FVX) chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s been happening. After rising for moreContinue reading “Watch the U.S. Treasury 5 – Year Yield”

Russell 2000 – Clear Elliott Wave Pattern

The Russell 2000 (RUT) Elliott wave count from 03/28/24 to 04/24/24 implies more downside action. The one – hour RUT chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s been happening. The RUT decline from 03/28/24 to 04/19/24 was an extended Elliott Impulse wave. The subsequent rally was a three – wave correction topping almost exactly atContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Clear Elliott Wave Pattern”

Potential S&P 500 Bottom – Early May 2024

Fibonacci price and time calculations indicate the S&P 500 (SPX) could make an important bottom in the first week of May 2024. The first daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the Fibonacci price calculations. The primary Fibonacci coordinate is a .50 retracement of the October 2022 to March 2024 bull market. The exactContinue reading “Potential S&P 500 Bottom – Early May 2024”

Using VIX to Find S&P 500 Bottoms

Upward spikes of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) usually correspond to significant S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms. The big question is how large of a VIX upward spike? The size of a VIX spike varies depending on the nature of the SPX decline. For the current SPX decline that began on 03/28/24 the Relative Strength IndexContinue reading “Using VIX to Find S&P 500 Bottoms”

Nasdaq Adds Fuel to the Bearish Fire

From October 2022 to March 2024 the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) lead the way, gaining 31% vs S&P 500 (SPX) up 28% and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) up 22%. On 04/19/24 IXIC declined 2.05% vs. SPX down .88%. The DJI was up .56. The IXIC dramatic drop on 04/19/24 implies more downside action for U.S.Continue reading “Nasdaq Adds Fuel to the Bearish Fire”

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Momentum

Weekly momentum indicators imply more downside action for the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT). The weekly SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates three momentum oscillators. The lower line for weekly Slow Stochastic has only reached 30%. The oversold zone begins at 20%. Weekly RSI is in the upper part of the neutralContinue reading “S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Momentum”

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 – Important Support Zones

The Volume Profile method identifies potential support for the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Volume profile places volume on a vertical axis and identifies support/resistances areas. The wideset volume cluster is called Point of Control (POC) which represents the strongest potential support/resistance. Price is drawn to or is repelled by POC. The first dailyContinue reading “S&P 500 and Russell 2000 – Important Support Zones”

Nasdaq Composite Bearish Breakthrough

The 04/15/24 Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) break below two important support levels opens the door for a move down to the January 2024 bottom. This sites 04/13/24 blog illustrated that the IXIC may have completed a bullish Horizontal Triangle and the IXIC could make a new all-time high. The IXIC gapped up on the 04/15/24 openContinue reading “Nasdaq Composite Bearish Breakthrough”

Russell 2000 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Pattern – 04/12/24

The intraday Russell 2000 (RUT) Elliott wave count implies more downside action. Since their late March 2024 peaks to their respective lows the three main U.S. stock indices have declined as follows. Nasdaq Composite down 2.9%. S&P 500 down 3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average down 5%. Looking beyond the three main U.S. stock indices, theContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Pattern – 04/12/24”