Most of the gains in the main U.S. stock indices since the 10/27/23 bottom can be attributed to the Technology sector. The manic move up in tech stocks could be the terminal phase of the bull market that began in October 2022. The daily chart for SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology (XLK) courtesy ofContinue reading “Technology Stock Blow Off Top?”
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Crude Oil Update – 11/17/23
On 11/16/23 Crude Oil appears to have made an intermediate degree bottom. The daily Crude Oil futures continuous contract (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View shows the progress of its decline since 09/28/23. The decline counts as a five – wave Elliott Impulse pattern. There’s a bullish MACD – Histogram divergence. RSI has moved above itsContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 11/17/23”
S&P 500 – Alternate and Prime Elliott Wave Counts
There are two paths the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. Late November 2023 could be an important time zone. The 11/05/23 blog “Sentiment and Momentum Readings for U.S. Stocks – October 2023” noted that the bottom made on 10/27/23 lacked the evidence for a multi-month rally and further stated “Bulls needContinue reading “S&P 500 – Alternate and Prime Elliott Wave Counts”
U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23
In recent months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield/rate and the U.S. stock market. Rates rise stocks fall. The U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) is now at a crossroad. What happens next week could determine the near -term course for U.S. stocks. The 09/21/23 blog “Upside TargetContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23”
S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23
The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an important Elliott Wave pattern. The 3 – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the most likely Elliott wave count from late July 2023. The SPX decline from 07/27/23 to 10/27/23 appears to be an Elliott wave – Leading Diagonal Triangle (LDT). This structure only occurs Continue reading ” S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23″
Watching for a Death Cross – Part Two
On 11/08/23 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 50 – day moving average (MA) was 39 – points away from crossing below its 200 -day MA. Today 11/09/23 the lines were only 18 – points apart. There’s a high probability the 50 – MA could go below the 200 – day MA on 11/10/23. TheContinue reading “Watching for a Death Cross – Part Two”
Utility Stocks and Interest Rates Connection
For more than one year there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. utility stocks and U.S. interest rates. When interest rates rise utility stocks decline. The Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU) could soon be signaling an important U.S. interest rate peak. The 09/21/23 blog “Upside Target for U.S. Treasury Yield” noted that U.S. 30 –Continue reading “Utility Stocks and Interest Rates Connection”
Clues From the Consumer Staples Stock Sector
The SPDR – Consumer Staples Select Sector fund (XLP) is usually one of the most bullish sectors in the U.S. stock market. During 2023 it’s performance relative to the general stock market has been bearish. XLP’s recent action indicates U.S. stocks could continue declining into early November 2023. The weekly XLP chart courtesy of BigCharts.comContinue reading “Clues From the Consumer Staples Stock Sector”
Crude Oil Update – 10/20/23
At the close of trading on 10/13/23 it appeared that Crude Oil (CL2!) had completed a post-crash bounce. During the week of 10/16/23 to 10/20/23 – CL2! – made additional upside progress. The move up from the 10/06/23 bottom still appears to be a bear market rally which could be complete. The daily CL2! –Continue reading “Crude Oil Update – 10/20/23”
Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks
Today 10/18/23 the U.S. stock market represented by the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.34%. U.S. interest rates represented by the U.S. government 30 – year yields (TYX) climbed .95%. A continuation of this trend during the next two weeks could trigger a mini crash for U.S. stocks. The 10/15/23 blog “Catalyst for a Stock MarketContinue reading “Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks”
Four Dimension Trading 