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During the prior three trading days the three main US stock indices slowly climbed higher and have remained below their all-time highs.  Most likely this is  the first rally within a developing bear market.  The trigger for the next stock market drop could come from the Bitcoin market. The daily Bitcoin in US dollars (BTCUSD)Continue reading “The Quiet Before the Storm?”

The US stock market is seasonally bullish from November into late April/early May. From 2009 to 2020 the S&P 500 (SPX) recorded five intermediate peaks in the late April/early May time zone.  The SPX 2021 high was on 05/07/21. The  Dow Jones Industrial Average  peak was 05/10/21. The subsequent smooth and steady decline appears toContinue reading “Entering the Bearish Season”

The 05/12/21 blog “The First Downside Target For US Stocks” noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) decline from the 05/07/21 peak appeared to be an Elliott five-wave impulse pattern. The rally on 05/13/21 confirmed the impulse wave was complete. The 30-minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action. The 30-minute SPX chartContinue reading “Clear Bearish Elliott Wave Pattern”

The 05/07/21 post  “The Bull Strikes Back” noted .  “If on 05/10/21 the bulls can’t push over 4238.04 watch S&P 500 (SPX) 4167.76. A  break below that short-term support made at 11:44 AM – ET 05/07/21 could have huge implications for market direction.”   The 4167.76 bottom was on 05/06/21 not 05/07/21 sorry for theContinue reading “S and P 500 – Detailed Elliott Wave Count 05-11-21”

Today 04/26/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) slowly struggled to rise. It took almost the entire session to break above the all-time high of 4194.17 made on  04/23/21. The breakout was.02 points reaching 4194.19 – the SPX then sharply fell below the  low of the session.    Interestingly the VIX – volatility indicator rose during theContinue reading “Struggling to Rally”

Recently some of my followers have been asking if the US stock market needs a trigger event, some news that causes a decline. At  the last major US stock market top in October 2007 there was no news event that triggered the initial drop. Later in September and October 2008 there was plenty of newsContinue reading “A Turn in the Tide?”

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates an alternate wave count. My 04/11/21 blog “Target of Opportunity” illustrated an SPX  Elliott wave count from 03/23/20 to 04/09/21 ending at a supposed Intermediate wave (3).  This count is still valid however seasonal factors make this count less likely. “Sell in May andContinue reading “S&P 500 Alternate Elliott Wave Count 04-17-21”

There are always alternate Elliott wave counts, the mass mind like an individual mind can change direction. Elliott wave analysts need to be prepared for change and have at least one alternate wave count. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the revised  Elliott wave count. The series of three smallContinue reading “Target of Opportunity”

Today 04/06/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) made new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite.  A  bearish “Rule of the Majority” signal.  What happened on the intraday chart from an Elliott wave perspective was fascinating. The best Elliott wave count for the SPX  has an Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT)Continue reading “The Cherry on Top”

If you were to take a poll of Elliott Wave practitioners of what they thought was the most reliable Elliott pattern they would probably say Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). Because of their configuration and location within a larger Elliott wave pattern, EDT’s present an excellent risk/reward trading opportunity.  EDTs occur primarily in the fifth waveContinue reading “The Most Reliable Elliott Wave Pattern”