Category Archives: Momentum

The First Bear Market Peak?

The 11/28/25 blog “December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?” noted that lunar cycles and momentum evidence implied the S&P 500 (SPX) could make an important top on 12/04/25. Elliott wave patterns and momentum hint that the SPX high on 12/05/25 may be the first peak in a developing multi month bear market. The dailyContinue reading “The First Bear Market Peak?”

The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Three

The 10/25/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector” noted that the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) had been a factor in the surge up of U.S. stocks.  On 10/29/25 both SOX and the S&P 500 (SPX) made post April 2025 rally highs.  In the subsequent decline SOX was weaker than SPX, declining 16% vs. SPX 5%Continue reading “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Three”

December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?

The 11/23/25 blog “Is History Repeating” illustrated the similarities between the S&P 500 (SPX) decline in November 2021 and November 2025 and noted.  “Intraday momentum supports the bullish scenario.  The 30 – minute RSI has several bullish divergences implying that the selling is exhausted.  There’s a good chance SPX could rally in the next fewContinue reading “December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?”

Is History Repeating?

Comparing November 2021 with November 2025 This website’s prior blog examined S&P 500 (SPX) November seasonal patterns.  November 2025 – SPX decline is like what happened in November 2021.  A repeat of that prior drop could happen in late 2025. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened late 2021 to earlyContinue reading “Is History Repeating?”

Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak

Powerful bull markets for both Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and U.S. stocks began on 04/07/25.  The BTCUSD peak on 10/06/25 could be a sign of an approaching top for U.S. stocks. The 09/14/25 blog “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025” examined the relationship between BTCUSD and the S&P 500 (SPX) from 2022 to 2025.  The weeklyContinue reading “Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak”

U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025

On 11/12/25 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made a new all-time high unaccompanied by the other two main U.S. stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX), and the Nasdaq Composite.  Since January 2000 this momentum divergence has signaled important U.S. stock market peaks. However, several of these signals have occurred in 2025 – all have failed. Continue reading “U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025”

The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two

The 10/25/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector” noted that the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) had been a factor in the surge up of U.S. stocks.  Recent action implies this leading sector is still bullish. The weekly SOX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s happened.   The 10/25/25 blog noted. “Weekly RSI continues toContinue reading “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – November 2025

Measuring market sentiment can determine when a trend could terminate. Market price peaks usually correspond with high bullish/optimistic sentiment.  In declining markets bottoms are near high bearish/pessimistic sentiment. Long and short-term U.S. stock market sentiment entering the November trading month are at historically high bullish levels.  The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – November 2025”

S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 10/24/25

The 10/23/25 blog “U.S. Stocks Crawling to New Highs?” illustrated the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle”.   The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates that potential wave count. The Ending Diagonal Triangle wave count from the 10/10/25 bottom is still valid.  In any five-wave motive patternContinue reading “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 10/24/25”