The Dow Theory was developed in the early twentieth century. One of the theories’ main principles was the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) – previously the Rails Average. A bearish divergence between the two averages was a signal of a looming bear market. A bullishContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Relationship”
Category Archives: Momentum
Bull and Bear Levels to Watch – 09/26/25
After the S&P 500 (SPX) bottom on 04/07/25 there were two mid – April declines of 6%. The subsequent rally has been persistent with only shallow drops. Could the SPX decline after the 09/23/25 peak be another shallow decline? There are two price levels to watch during the 09/29/25 to 10/03/25 trading week. The dailyContinue reading ” Bull and Bear Levels to Watch – 09/26/25″
U.S. Treasury Yields Trending Higher – September 2025
On 09/17/25 the U.S. – FOMC lowered short – term interest rates by 25 – basis points. A few minutes after the announcement the U.S. 30 year – Treasury yield (TYX) bottomed out and began rising. The weekly TYX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term picture. Since mid – 2023 -TYXContinue reading “U.S. Treasury Yields Trending Higher – September 2025”
S&P 500 Reaches 6,666!
The 09/13/25 blog “S&P 500 at 6,666?” noted the S&P 500 (SPX) hit 6,600 which was the bull’s eye of a Fibonacci price relationship with the SPX bull market in August 1987. Also noted was that the main U.S. stock indices rarely turn on round numbers. The SPX made a major bottom in March 2009Continue reading “S&P 500 Reaches 6,666!”
Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025
Since early 2022 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have roughly traded together. Perhaps the BTCUSD peak in August 2025 is heralding a bear market for both indices. The weekly BTCUSD and SPX chart illustrates their relationship since late 2021. On 11/10/21 BTCUSD made a significant peak. On 01/04/22 SPX made an important peakContinue reading “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025”
The New King of all U.S. Stocks
Several weeks ago, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) was the most bullish of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. Recently MSFT has turned bearish and appears to be headed lower. Meanwhile another Magnificent Seven stock has taken the upside lead. Can this stocks rally hold off a broader U.S. stock market decline? First a look at MSFT which wasContinue reading “The New King of all U.S. Stocks”
Stock Market Clue from October 2002
What happened in the U.S. stock market during October 2002 could be an important clue for action in 2025. From October 1999 to early 2000 the U.S. stock market experienced the greatest buying mania since mid – 1929. The leading stock index in the post October 1999 rally was the Nasdaq 100 (NDQ). After theContinue reading “Stock Market Clue from October 2002”
Very Important Trendline – 08/29/25
On 08/27/25 and 08/28/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) made all-time highs unconfirmed by the other two main U.S. stock indices: Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite. This is a major bearish momentum divergence. However, on 08/28/25, VIX made a new post 04/07/25 bottom. All the major SPX peaks since March 2000 have occurred withContinue reading “Very Important Trendline – 08/29/25”
Microsoft Update – 08/22/25
The 06/07/25 blog “The Strongest Magnificent Seven Stock” noted that at that time Microsoft (MSFT) was the only one of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks to make a new all-time high. Since then, there have been other “Magnificent Seven” to make new all-time highs. However, for the week ending 08/2/25 only Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) reached aContinue reading “Microsoft Update – 08/22/25”
Rally into a Lunar Cycle – 08/22/25
At 10:00 AM – EDT on 08/22/25 the text of FOMC chairman Powell was released. The U.S. stock market immediately had a huge rally which could be the climax of the bull market that began on 04/07/25. Markets sometimes turn on New/Full Moons plus or minus two trading days. There’s a New Moon on SaturdayContinue reading “Rally into a Lunar Cycle – 08/22/25”
Four Dimension Trading 