Category Archives: Momentum

Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025

Since early 2022 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have roughly traded together.  Perhaps the BTCUSD peak in August 2025 is heralding a bear market for both indices. The weekly BTCUSD and SPX chart illustrates their relationship since late 2021. On 11/10/21 BTCUSD made a significant peak.  On 01/04/22 SPX made an important peakContinue reading “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025”

The New King of all U.S. Stocks

Several weeks ago, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) was the most bullish of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.  Recently MSFT has turned bearish and appears to be headed lower.  Meanwhile another Magnificent Seven stock has taken the upside lead.  Can this stocks rally hold off a broader U.S. stock market decline? First a look at MSFT which wasContinue reading “The New King of all U.S. Stocks”

Stock Market Clue from October 2002

What happened in the U.S. stock market during October 2002 could be an important clue for action in 2025. From October 1999 to early 2000 the U.S. stock market experienced the greatest buying mania since mid – 1929.  The leading stock index in the post October 1999 rally was the Nasdaq 100 (NDQ).  After theContinue reading “Stock Market Clue from October 2002”

Very Important Trendline – 08/29/25

On 08/27/25 and 08/28/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) made all-time highs unconfirmed by the other two main U.S. stock indices: Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite.  This is a major bearish momentum divergence.  However, on 08/28/25, VIX made a new post 04/07/25 bottom.  All the major SPX peaks since March 2000 have occurred withContinue reading “Very Important Trendline – 08/29/25”

Microsoft Update – 08/22/25

The 06/07/25 blog “The Strongest Magnificent Seven Stock” noted that at that time Microsoft (MSFT) was the only one of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks to make a new all-time high.  Since then, there have been other “Magnificent Seven” to make new all-time highs.  However, for the week ending 08/2/25 only Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) reached aContinue reading “Microsoft Update – 08/22/25”

Rally into a Lunar Cycle – 08/22/25

At 10:00 AM – EDT on 08/22/25 the text of FOMC chairman Powell was released.  The U.S. stock market immediately had a huge rally which could be the climax of the bull market that began on 04/07/25. Markets sometimes turn on New/Full Moons plus or minus two trading days.  There’s a New Moon on SaturdayContinue reading “Rally into a Lunar Cycle – 08/22/25”

U.S Stock Market Momentum Update – 08/21/25

Internal momentum for the U.S. stock market continues to have bearish signals. The six – month NYSE 52 – week high chart courtesy of Barchart.com illustrates a near – term bearish divergence. On 08/13/25 the NYSE new highs moved marginally above the reading made on 07/03/25. However, on 08/19/25 when the Dow Jones Industrial AverageContinue reading “U.S Stock Market Momentum Update – 08/21/25”

Possible Major U.S. Stock Market Peak – 08/19/25

The 08/17/25 blog “Lunar Time Cycle in 1987 and 2025” noted a major U.S. stock peak could come in the time zone of 08/21/25 to 08/26/25.  This is still possible; however, there’s also a larger seasonal pattern of a potential major peak any day in August.  Today 08/19/25 could be that day. Since March ofContinue reading “Possible Major U.S. Stock Market Peak – 08/19/25”

Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25

On 08/12/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) reached new all-time highs. This invalidates the bearish divergence made on 08/08/25 when IXIC made a new high unconfirmed by the SPX. Additionally, the VIX made a new post 04/07/25 low.  This invalidates the higher VIX bottom made on 08/08/25. The daily SPX, IXIC, andContinue reading “Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25”