Mark Rivest

S&P 500 Alternate Elliott Wave Count 04-17-21

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates an alternate wave count. My 04/11/21 blog “Target of Opportunity” illustrated an SPX Elliott wave count from 03/23/20 to 04/09/21 ending at a supposed Intermediate wave (3). This count is still valid however seasonal factors make this count less likely. “Sell in May andContinue reading “S&P 500 Alternate Elliott Wave Count 04-17-21”

Blow Off Top on Top of a Blow Off Top

The first phase or kick off of the S&P 500 (SPX) secular bull market was from 03/06/09 to 04/26/10. This move lasted 286 trading days and gained 82.9. This was one of the farthest and fastest rallies in US stock market history. The bull phase that began on 03/23/20 to today – 04/16/21 has lastedContinue reading “Blow Off Top on Top of a Blow Off Top”

Stock Bulls are Running Out of Time

Today 04/14/21 two of the three main US stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made new all-time highs. This is a bullish “Rule of the majority” signal. Additionally, the VIX indicator made a new low in its decline from its high made in March 2020. These factors are atContinue reading “Stock Bulls are Running Out of Time”

Target of Opportunity

There are always alternate Elliott wave counts, the mass mind like an individual mind can change direction. Elliott wave analysts need to be prepared for change and have at least one alternate wave count. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the revised Elliott wave count. The series of three smallContinue reading “Target of Opportunity”

Market Resting Time

On 04/09/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) achieved a gain of 88.4% from the 03/23/20 bottom, this is one of the farthest and fastest gains in US stock market history. In 1999 the Nasdaq Composite had a faster and larger move; however, this was primarily because of concentrated buying in the technology sector. You have toContinue reading “Market Resting Time”

Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals

Investors who use margin debt pledge their securities in exchange for loans from brokers to buy more securities or sell short a stock. Usually, total margin debt increases as stock markets rise and decline in stock bear markets. The chart of margin debt compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) from Advisor Perspectives shows the relationshipContinue reading “Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals”

Pattern Broken

On 04/06/21 the supposed S&P 500 (SPX) – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) throwover was at an extreme. The 04/06/21 blog “The Cherry on Top” noted “ If the rally into the high of the day was a completed EDT there’s a high probability the SPX could trend down throughout most of 04/07/21”. This didn’t happen,Continue reading “Pattern Broken”

The Cherry on Top

Today 04/06/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) made new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite. A bearish “Rule of the Majority” signal. What happened on the intraday chart from an Elliott wave perspective was fascinating. The best Elliott wave count for the SPX has an Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT)Continue reading “The Cherry on Top”

Buying Panic?

Today 04/05/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) reached an 86.3% gain from its 03/23/20 bottom. This move in a little more than one year is mind boggling and rare. Momentum and sentiment bearish divergences abound which have been documented in recent posts. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates daily RSI and MACD bearishContinue reading “Buying Panic?”

Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21

The March 2, 2021 blog examined the Bullish Consensus readings for the US stock market over the entire secular bull market that began in March 2009. This update will also examine the recent readings since late 2020. Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus is the degree of bullish sentiment forContinue reading “Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21”