Mark Rivest

Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals

Investors who use margin debt pledge their securities in exchange for loans from brokers to buy more securities or sell short a stock. Usually, total margin debt increases as stock markets rise and decline in stock bear markets. The chart of margin debt compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) from Advisor Perspectives shows the relationshipContinue reading “Powerful Bearish Sentiment Signals”

Pattern Broken

On 04/06/21 the supposed S&P 500 (SPX) – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) throwover was at an extreme. The 04/06/21 blog “The Cherry on Top” noted “ If the rally into the high of the day was a completed EDT there’s a high probability the SPX could trend down throughout most of 04/07/21”. This didn’t happen,Continue reading “Pattern Broken”

The Cherry on Top

Today 04/06/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) made new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite. A bearish “Rule of the Majority” signal. What happened on the intraday chart from an Elliott wave perspective was fascinating. The best Elliott wave count for the SPX has an Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT)Continue reading “The Cherry on Top”

Buying Panic?

Today 04/05/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) reached an 86.3% gain from its 03/23/20 bottom. This move in a little more than one year is mind boggling and rare. Momentum and sentiment bearish divergences abound which have been documented in recent posts. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates daily RSI and MACD bearishContinue reading “Buying Panic?”

Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21

The March 2, 2021 blog examined the Bullish Consensus readings for the US stock market over the entire secular bull market that began in March 2009. This update will also examine the recent readings since late 2020. Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus is the degree of bullish sentiment forContinue reading “Market Vane Bullish Consensus for US Stocks Update 04-04-21”

The Most Reliable Elliott Wave Pattern

If you were to take a poll of Elliott Wave practitioners of what they thought was the most reliable Elliott pattern they would probably say Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). Because of their configuration and location within a larger Elliott wave pattern, EDT’s present an excellent risk/reward trading opportunity. EDTs occur primarily in the fifth waveContinue reading “The Most Reliable Elliott Wave Pattern”

Major Stock Market Top Could be in Place

Today 03/31/21 was the end of the quarter. Sometimes the end of a quarter can be a point at which a trend changes. If the trend has been up during the quarter, fund managers would likely want to hold profitable positions. The best performance figures could be recorded on the final day of the quarter. Continue reading “Major Stock Market Top Could be in Place”

Weak Stock Market Decline

Toady 3/30/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a shallow decline. More importantly, the Russell 2000 (RUT) was up for most of the day. Recently RUT has been lagging the SPX. The daily RUT and SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the recent action between the two indices. RUT’s most recent correction was down aboutContinue reading “Weak Stock Market Decline”

Stock Topping Process 03-29-21

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the other two main US stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite. I call this a rule of the majority signal and could indicate a significant US stock market top. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates a possibleContinue reading “Stock Topping Process 03-29-21”

Additional Evidence of a Pending Stock Market Top

Short-term Sentiment At important market peaks the evidence is not universally bearish, The same for important market bottoms, there’s usually at least one factor that is contrary to the weight of evidence. The VIX indicator continues to be bullish. I’ve noted in prior posts that the VIX usually makes a higher bottom at S&PContinue reading “Additional Evidence of a Pending Stock Market Top”