Author Archives: Mark Rivest

The Relationship Between US Stocks and Crude Oil

The US stock market and Crude Oil – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have similar seasonal patterns, specifically both tend to trend down from September to October. Crude Oil’s  powerful move up from its  late September 2022 bottom could continue through October and perhaps longer.  This  counter seasonal move up could be a hint for aContinue reading “The Relationship Between US Stocks and Crude Oil“

Russell 2000 – Bullish Signal

In late September 2022 the Russell 2000 (RUT) small cap stock index bottomed before the S&P 500 (SPX). After the 09/30/22 SPX bottom, RUT rallied  higher relative to the SPX.  Then on 10/07/22 during a large decline in US stocks, RUT fell less relative to the SPX. The 30- minute SPX and RUT chart courtesyContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Bullish Signal”

Russell 2000 Leading the Way Up – 10/04/22

During late September 2022 the Russell 2000 (RUT) index of small cap stocks struggled to go lower.  Now in early October its leading US stocks higher.  A  review of external momentum indicators imply the rally could continue for several weeks. The daily RUT chart courtesy of Trading View updates the price and momentum action. OnContinue reading “Russell 2000 Leading the Way Up – 10/04/22“

Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish Interpretations – 09/30/22

As of 09/30/22 momentum and sentiment evidence implied the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming a double bottom vs. its mid – June 2022 low.  This blog examines  two possible Elliott wave alternate bullish counts. In Elliott wave theory there are always at least two alternate wave counts, bearish and bullish. Frequently there can beContinue reading “Elliott Wave Alternate Bullish Interpretations – 09/30/22“

Curious Non – Confirmation – Part Two

The 09/28/22 blog concluded with this note, “It’s too soon to declare a double bottom is  in place vs. the June bottoms.  Let’s see what the bears can do on 09/29/22.”  Subsequently the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made new bear market lows while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Russell 2000Continue reading “Curious Non – Confirmation – Part Two”

Curious Non – Confirmation

On 09/27/22 within the time window for a possible lunar turn signal, the S&P 500 (SPX) marginally broke below its 06/17/22 bottom.  The SPX breakthrough was the second of the three main US stock indices to make a new bear market low – a bearish confirming signal. However, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) did not makeContinue reading “Curious Non – Confirmation”

Elliott Wave – Alternate Bearish Interpretation –09/23/22

The 07/21/22 blog “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 07/21/22” noted that the 2022 US stock market decline was taking a complex pattern similar to the 2000 to 2002 bear market.  The January to June 2022 S&P 500 (SPX) drop was a complex and choppy pattern.  The Elliott wave guideline for alternation among  wavesContinue reading “Elliott Wave – Alternate Bearish Interpretation –09/23/22“

A Review of Momentum and Sentiment Indicators – 09/21/22

On the FOMC interest rate announcement day, US stocks continued to decline.  The daily S&P 500 (SPX) – RSI bullish divergence was eliminated.   This blog updates the actions of two internal momentum indicators. The daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.com examines  US New Highs  minus New Lows (5-day total – end of day) StockCharts.com symbol ($USHL5).Continue reading “A Review of Momentum and Sentiment Indicators – 09/21/22“

A Review of Momentum Indicators – 09/16/22

Market momentum should at least match or exceed price  movements.  Momentum divergences  imply lack of conviction and could be the prelude to a reversal. This  blog updates momentum indicators that were illustrated in the 09/14/22 blog “Erratic Price Movements”. The daily S&P 500  (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View examines  external momentum. As of 09/14/22Continue reading “A Review of Momentum Indicators – 09/16/22“