Mark Rivest

Fifty – Year Analysis of the S&P 500

Very long-term Fibonacci price and time ratios imply S&P 500 (SPX) could make a significant peak sometime in 2025. Because of the fractal nature of markets Fibonacci price and time analysis can be made on any time scale, from minutes to centuries. The yearly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View examines two bull markets thatContinue reading “Fifty – Year Analysis of the S&P 500”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – October 2025

The 10/06/25 blog “Rising VIX and Rising Stocks” noted “The ideal condition for a major U.S. stock peak would be a higher VIX bottom and only one of the three main U.S. stock indices: SPX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite making a new all-time high”. That was the condition on 10/10/25 when theContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – October 2025”

Lunar Cycles and Momentum – October 2025

The 10/06/25 blog “Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025” examined the Lunar cycle phenomenon of markets turning on Full or New Moons plus or minus two trading days. This cycle was effective on 10/11/07 – a New Moon and the peak of a five – year S&P 500 (SPX) bull market. The 10/06/25Continue reading “Lunar Cycles and Momentum – October 2025”

Watch the Nasdaq Composite on – 10/10/25 – Part Two

The 10/09/25 blog “Watch the Nasdaq Composite on – 10/10/25” noted. “At the open of the main trading session on 10/09/25 both the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and S&P 500 (SPX) made new all-time highs then quickly declined. The other main U.S. stock index, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged below its all-time high made onContinue reading “Watch the Nasdaq Composite on – 10/10/25 – Part Two”

Watch the Nasdaq Composite on 10/10/25

At the open of the main trading session on 10/09/25 both the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and S&P 500 (SPX) made new all-time highs then quickly declined. The other main U.S. stock index, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged below its all-time high made on 10/03/25. It’s possible that on 10/10/25 only the IXIC could reachContinue reading “Watch the Nasdaq Composite on 10/10/25”

Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025

Seasonal patterns for U.S. stocks are bearish from mid – August to October and bullish from November to April. U.S. stocks have rallied through September which is statistically the most bearish month. With the bearish season nearly complete, does this mean several more months of rallying? It’s possible however the S&P 500 (SPX) has notContinue reading “Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025”

Dow Jones Industrial Average Converging Trendlines

Three converging trendlines could be resistance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). The weekly DJI chart courtesy of Trading View Illustrates the long – term view. The trendline connecting January 2022 and December 2024 peaks could be reached during the week of 10/06/25 to 10/10/25. Sometimes prior support trendlines could become resistance. In thisContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial Average Converging Trendlines”

Rising VIX and Rising Stocks

For several weeks the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have both been trending higher. Could this be the prelude for an important SPX peak or another false sell signal. The daily SPX and VIX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship since May 2025. Normally VIX and SPX move in oppositeContinue reading “Rising VIX and Rising Stocks”

Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Relationship

The Dow Theory was developed in the early twentieth century. One of the theories’ main principles was the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) – previously the Rails Average. A bearish divergence between the two averages was a signal of a looming bear market. A bullishContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Relationship”

Short – Term S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – 09/26/25

The S&P 500 (SPX) decline from the 09/23/25 peak appears to be corrective. If so, the SPX could reach a new all-time high sometime next week. The 15 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action. There are always alternate wave counts in Elliott analysis. This chart shows the bullish interpretationContinue reading “Short – Term S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – 09/26/25”