Mark Rivest

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 09/27/24

Sentiment readings for U.S. stocks late September 2024 are shockingly bearish. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sometimes called the fear index is very effective in discovering S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms. Sharp spikes up in the VIX usually correspond to significant SPX bottoms. You may think that VIX lows correspond to SPX peaks. This is notContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 09/27/24”

Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24

A characteristic of the major U.S. stock market peaks in 2000, 2007, 2022 was that at the final top only one of the three main U.S. stock was making a new high. On 09/26/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) a made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite. DuringContinue reading “Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24”

Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24

Trendline and momentum indicators imply long-term rates are in a bull market. The daily CBOE 30- year Treasury Yield (TYX) courtesy of Trading View updates the action. TYX has broken above the declining trendline connecting the 08/08/24 to 09/03/24 peaks. Daily RSI is well below the overbought level which begins at 70.00. MACD lines areContinue reading “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24”

Long-Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 09/20/24

The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an extended Elliott five wave pattern from the October 2022 bottom. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The move up from October 2022 to January 2023 is a series of one’s and two’s which is the basing pattern for a long and powerfulContinue reading “Long-Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 09/20/24”

The Case for Rising U.S. Interest Rates

After almost a year of anticipation the U.S. FOMC lowered short-term interest rates by a half of a percent. Happy days are here again! Are they? From just before the announcement longer – term U.S. interest rates have been rising. If the trend continues it could be detrimental to the U.S. economy. The weekly chartContinue reading “The Case for Rising U.S. Interest Rates”

Buy the Rumor Buy the News

After the 09/18/24 U.S – FOMC announcement U.S stocks rallied then reversed and the three main U.S stock indices ended the session near the lows of the day. It looked like a classic example of “buy the rumor sell the news”. On 09/19/24 U.S. stock bulls other plans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chartContinue reading “Buy the Rumor Buy the News”

Microsoft and Alphabet Inc. Elliott Wave Patterns

Much of the S&P 500 (SPX) upside performance through 2023 and 2024 has come from the so called “Magnificent Seven Stocks”. These stocks are Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN),Apple, (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT) Nvidia, and Tesla (TSLA). As of 05/07/24 these 7 stocks made up 29% of the SPX gains. The other 71%Continue reading “Microsoft and Alphabet Inc. Elliott Wave Patterns”

Gold – Elliott Wave Count – 09/13/24

Gold in U.S. dollars (XAUUSD) could soon make a primary degree peak. The daily Gold chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the Elliott wave count since October 2022. Elliott wave analysis is a process of breaking markets into segments. You start from the most significant high or low to discover the main segment. From thatContinue reading “Gold – Elliott Wave Count – 09/13/24”

Gold Topping Process – Part Two – 09/12/24

The 09/05//24 blog “Gold Topping Process – 09/05/24” noted “Gold in U.S. dollars could soon make a new all – time high in the area of 2,540 to 2,550”. Today 09/12/24 Gold in U.S. dollars (XAUUSD) made a new all-time high at 2.560.16. The weekly Gold chart courtesy of Trading View updates the long-term action.Continue reading “Gold Topping Process – Part Two – 09/12/24”

U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24

The 08/04/24 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis” illustrated price and time targets for the U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX). Weekly Fibonacci time analysis targeted the first week of September 2024 for a potential turn. Daily Fibonacci time analysis targeted 08/30/24 for a possible turn date.Continue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24”