Mark Rivest

Prime Time for U.S. Stock Bears

Seasonally U.S. stocks can decline from May until October. Sometimes during persistent bull trends U.S. stocks could peak in late August or early September. Examples of this phenomenon occurred in September 1929, August 1987 and September 2000. A recent bearish momentum divergence could be signaling a sharp August to October 2024 stock decline. The dailyContinue reading ” Prime Time for U.S. Stock Bears”

Gold Update – 08/23/24

The 08/17/24 blog “Super Bearish Message from Gold and Silver” illustrated that Gold (XAUUSD) could be forming the final wave of an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). Typically, EDT’s fifth wave has a throw over of the trendline connecting the termination points of the first and third wave. This occurred on 08/20/24 oneContinue reading “Gold Update – 08/23/24”

August Stock Rally Climax?

The 08/22/24 blog “Buy the Rumor – Sell the News – 08/22/24” noted. “On 08/23/24 FOMC – chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. Perhaps the Speech could trigger the Minute wave [v] final rally of the post 08/05/24 bull move”. There’s was a rally on Powell’s comments. Could the presumed MinuteContinue reading “August Stock Rally Climax?”

Buy the Rumor – Sell the News – 8/22/24

The manic rally from the mini crash bottom made on 08/05/24 could terminate on 08/23/24. The 08/11/24 blog “U.S. Stock Market Forecast – Late 2024” speculated that post 08/05/24 rally could be choppy and peak sometime in mid – September 2024. What’s happened so far has been a very sharp rally that could end inContinue reading “Buy the Rumor – Sell the News – 8/22/24”

Relentless Stock Rally – 08/21/24

The near vertical rally of the S&P 500 (SPX) continues. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The only significant change on an hourly basis is the RSI significant bearish divergence AT THE 08/21/24 peak. The big problem from an Elliott wave perspective are the very shallow declines,Continue reading “Relentless Stock Rally – 08/21/24”

Approaching Price and Time Zones – 08/16/24

On 08/16/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) came within 4.19 points of completing a presumed Inverse Expanding Flat correction. This pattern could be complete in the next three trading days. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action from the all-time high made on 07/16/24. The 08/15/24 blog “S&P 500 –Continue reading “Approaching Price and Time Zones – 08/16/24”

Super Bearish Message from Gold and Silver

The 07/21/214 blog “Bearish Message from Gold and Silver” noted considerable evidence that both precious metals could soon begin a multi-week decline. Since then, Gold (XAUUSD) has exceeded its mid – July 2024 peak, while Silver (XAGUSD) continues to lag on the upside. A severe downward shift for both metals could be imminent. The weeklyContinue reading “Super Bearish Message from Gold and Silver”

S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/15/24

The S&P 500 is pushing through chart resistance in the low 5,500 area and short -term momentum is still bullish. Short – Term Elliott wave analysis could provide a road map to near -term action. The one- hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates short-term momentum. On 08/15/24 the one – hour RSI pushedContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/15/24”

Breaking Through the Ceiling – 08/14/24

The 08/10/24 blog “S&P 500 – Short – Term Resistance” illustrated strong resistance in the S&P 500 (SPX) area of 5,390 to 5,397. Also noted “A move above 5,400 could quickly propel the SPX up to the low 5,500 area”. On 08/13/24 the SPX did move above 5,400 and is now close to the nextContinue reading “Breaking Through the Ceiling – 08/14/24”

U.S. Stock Market Forecast – Late 2024

Long – term S&P 500 (SPX) price patterns could provide clues to the direction of U.S. stocks in the second half of 2024. The 07/20/24 blog “Examination of S&P 500 – July Tops” looked at seven examples of what happened with the SPX after significant July peaks. Two of the examples, post July 2011 andContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Forecast – Late 2024”