For several months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. stocks and U.S. government debt yields/rates. The recent manic U.S. stock rally since late October corresponds with the U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) decline. Near – term the TYX appears it could be making a bottom. The daily TYX chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “Treasury Yields Near a Bottom – 12/07/23.”
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Possible S&P 500 Intermediate Top Made on 12/01/23.
The 11/26/23 “Time Cycle Turn late November 2023” examined a potential S&P 500 – Fibonacci time cycle based on prior peaks and noted. “The week beginning 02/18/20 to the week beginning 01/03/22 is 98 – weeks. Projecting 98 – weeks from 01/03/23 targets the week beginning 11/20/23. On this time scale a leeway of oneContinue reading “Possible S&P 500 Intermediate Top Made on 12/01/23.”
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 11-30-23.
The 11/29/23 blog illustrated the S&P 500 (SPX) appeared have begun an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle that began on 11/28/23 at 4,540.51. Today on 11/30/23 the SPX broke below 4,540.51 invalidating the Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern. The SPX move below 4,540.51 was marginal and appears to have completed an Elliott wave corrective pattern.Continue reading “S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 11-30-23.”
S&P 500 in Terminal Wave Up?
At the open of the 11/29/23 session the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new post 10/27/23 rally high. After 15 minutes the rally was exhausted, and the SPX trended down for the balance of the session. Could this be the start of a significant decline? Perhaps, however the NYSE advance/decline line was bullish, with 59%Continue reading “S&P 500 in Terminal Wave Up?”
Technology Stock Blow Off Top?
Most of the gains in the main U.S. stock indices since the 10/27/23 bottom can be attributed to the Technology sector. The manic move up in tech stocks could be the terminal phase of the bull market that began in October 2022. The daily chart for SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology (XLK) courtesy ofContinue reading “Technology Stock Blow Off Top?”
Crude Oil Update – 11/17/23
On 11/16/23 Crude Oil appears to have made an intermediate degree bottom. The daily Crude Oil futures continuous contract (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View shows the progress of its decline since 09/28/23. The decline counts as a five – wave Elliott Impulse pattern. There’s a bullish MACD – Histogram divergence. RSI has moved above itsContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 11/17/23”
S&P 500 – Alternate and Prime Elliott Wave Counts
There are two paths the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. Late November 2023 could be an important time zone. The 11/05/23 blog “Sentiment and Momentum Readings for U.S. Stocks – October 2023” noted that the bottom made on 10/27/23 lacked the evidence for a multi-month rally and further stated “Bulls needContinue reading “S&P 500 – Alternate and Prime Elliott Wave Counts”
U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23
In recent months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield/rate and the U.S. stock market. Rates rise stocks fall. The U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) is now at a crossroad. What happens next week could determine the near -term course for U.S. stocks. The 09/21/23 blog “Upside TargetContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23”
S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23
The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an important Elliott Wave pattern. The 3 – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the most likely Elliott wave count from late July 2023. The SPX decline from 07/27/23 to 10/27/23 appears to be an Elliott wave – Leading Diagonal Triangle (LDT). This structure only occurs Continue reading ” S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23″
Watching for a Death Cross – Part Two
On 11/08/23 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 50 – day moving average (MA) was 39 – points away from crossing below its 200 -day MA. Today 11/09/23 the lines were only 18 – points apart. There’s a high probability the 50 – MA could go below the 200 – day MA on 11/10/23. TheContinue reading “Watching for a Death Cross – Part Two”
Four Dimension Trading 