Category Archives: Momentum

Very Important Trendline – 08/29/25

On 08/27/25 and 08/28/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) made all-time highs unconfirmed by the other two main U.S. stock indices: Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite.  This is a major bearish momentum divergence.  However, on 08/28/25, VIX made a new post 04/07/25 bottom.  All the major SPX peaks since March 2000 have occurred withContinue reading “Very Important Trendline – 08/29/25”

Microsoft Update – 08/22/25

The 06/07/25 blog “The Strongest Magnificent Seven Stock” noted that at that time Microsoft (MSFT) was the only one of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks to make a new all-time high.  Since then, there have been other “Magnificent Seven” to make new all-time highs.  However, for the week ending 08/2/25 only Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) reached aContinue reading “Microsoft Update – 08/22/25”

Rally into a Lunar Cycle – 08/22/25

At 10:00 AM – EDT on 08/22/25 the text of FOMC chairman Powell was released.  The U.S. stock market immediately had a huge rally which could be the climax of the bull market that began on 04/07/25. Markets sometimes turn on New/Full Moons plus or minus two trading days.  There’s a New Moon on SaturdayContinue reading “Rally into a Lunar Cycle – 08/22/25”

U.S Stock Market Momentum Update – 08/21/25

Internal momentum for the U.S. stock market continues to have bearish signals. The six – month NYSE 52 – week high chart courtesy of Barchart.com illustrates a near – term bearish divergence. On 08/13/25 the NYSE new highs moved marginally above the reading made on 07/03/25. However, on 08/19/25 when the Dow Jones Industrial AverageContinue reading “U.S Stock Market Momentum Update – 08/21/25”

Possible Major U.S. Stock Market Peak – 08/19/25

The 08/17/25 blog “Lunar Time Cycle in 1987 and 2025” noted a major U.S. stock peak could come in the time zone of 08/21/25 to 08/26/25.  This is still possible; however, there’s also a larger seasonal pattern of a potential major peak any day in August.  Today 08/19/25 could be that day. Since March ofContinue reading “Possible Major U.S. Stock Market Peak – 08/19/25”

Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25

On 08/12/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) reached new all-time highs. This invalidates the bearish divergence made on 08/08/25 when IXIC made a new high unconfirmed by the SPX. Additionally, the VIX made a new post 04/07/25 low.  This invalidates the higher VIX bottom made on 08/08/25. The daily SPX, IXIC, andContinue reading “Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25”

The Ultimate Bearish Divergence?

There are several ways a stock index could have bearish momentum signals.  Momentum oscillators such as Stochastic or RSI can be used to identify a coming down trend   Components of a stock index can also be used to discover potential trend changes.   Advance/decline lines of stocks within the index as well as stocks makingContinue reading “The Ultimate Bearish Divergence?”

Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25

NYSE – 52 – week highs and the VIX give bearish signals for the U.S. stock market. The VIX is very effective identifying S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms.  VIX spikes up at or near the completion of an SPX decline.  The situation is different when the SPX is reaching an important peak.  VIX signals a potentialContinue reading “Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25”

Trendline and RSI Analysis – S&P 500 – 07/25/25

Examination of three-time scales reveals interesting clues for the S&P 500 (SPX). The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term view. Last week the SPX went marginally above the long-term rising trendline connecting the January 2022 and February 2025 peaks.  This movement corresponded with a significant weekly RSI bearish divergence.  The combinationContinue reading “Trendline and RSI Analysis – S&P 500 – 07/25/25”