Category Archives: Momentum

The Birth of a Bear Market? – 01/31/24

For several weeks the U.S. stock market has had several bearish momentum signals.  However, there’s been one factor missing from the bearish equation – a “Rule of the Majority” signal.  This phenomenon occurs when only one of the three main U.S. stock indices; S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)Continue reading “The Birth of a Bear Market? – 01/31/24”

The Magnificent Two Stocks

In the late stage of a stock bull market fewer and fewer stocks participate in the rally.  On 01/26/24 only two of the seven stocks driving the U.S. stock market made new highs. The seven stocks driving the U.S stock market are called the “Magnificent Seven” and as “Investor’s Business Daily”  writes. “Due to theirContinue reading “The Magnificent Two Stocks”

The Final Rally for U.S. Stocks?

The 01/25/24 blog “Basing for the Final Rally?” noted, “The DJI and SPX have the best chance of another all-time high being made on 01/26/24.” On 01/26/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made all-time highs.  This could be the final rally, and pinnacle of the U.S. stock bull market. Continue reading “The Final Rally for U.S. Stocks?”

U.S. Stock Market Momentum Update – 01/19/24

On 01/19/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) surged up 1.23% and made a new all-time high.  On the surface it appears this could be in the start part of another manic rally.  An examination of U.S. stock market momentum suggests something else. The daily S&P 500 – Advanced/Decline line ($SPXADP) chart courtesy of StockCharts.com updates itsContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Momentum Update – 01/19/24”

S&P 500 – Short – Term Downside Target – 01/17/24

The 01/14//24 blog “S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 01/12/24” illustrated that an Elliott Wave – Expanding Flat correction was probably developing and noted. “There’s a good chance the third wave – Minor wave “C” began at the SPX high on 01/12/24”.  The S&P 500  (SPX) high on 01/12/24 has held, increasing theContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Downside Target – 01/17/24”

S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 01/12/24

There are always alternate Elliott wave counts.  To determine the most likely path requires analysis of market momentum and sentiment.   Recent momentum readings continue to suggest a short-term decline to at least the S&P 500 (SPX) 4,550 area. Recent blogs on this website have illustrated the bearish momentum messages from the S&P 500 – BullishContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 01/12/24”

Bitcoin Drops Fast From Important Resistance

On 01/11/24 – Bitcoin in U.S. dollars (BTCUSD) reached important Fibonacci resistance and then rapidly declined.  Several factors indicate this could just be the start of at least a multi-month bear phase.  The weekly BTCUSD chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the big picture. The BTCUSD all-time high was in November 2021 it then fellContinue reading “Bitcoin Drops Fast From Important Resistance”

Manic Bounce – Part Two – 01/11/24

Today, 01/11/24 the release of the December U.S. – CPI data triggered  the S&P 500 (SPX) to move marginally above its 12/28/23 high. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Bearish momentum continues.  Daily – CCI still has a significant bearish divergence.  RSI now has a double bearish divergence vs. itsContinue reading “Manic Bounce – Part Two – 01/11/24”

Manic Bounce – 01/10/24

The 01/06/24 blog “Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 500 – 01/04/24” illustrated S&P 500 (SPX) bullish momentum divergences that implied a bounce and noted. “If on 01/08/24 there’s no move below the 01/05/24 low, the bounce is probably developing”.  On 01/08/24 the SPX opened above the 01/05/24 low.  The subsequent SPX bounceContinue reading “Manic Bounce – 01/10/24”