Seasonally U.S. stocks can decline from May until October. Sometimes during persistent bull trends U.S. stocks could peak in late August or early September. Examples of this phenomenon occurred in September 1929, August 1987 and September 2000. A recent bearish momentum divergence could be signaling a sharp August to October 2024 stock decline. The dailyContinue reading ” Prime Time for U.S. Stock Bears”
Category Archives: Momentum
Buy the Rumor – Sell the News – 8/22/24
The manic rally from the mini crash bottom made on 08/05/24 could terminate on 08/23/24. The 08/11/24 blog “U.S. Stock Market Forecast – Late 2024” speculated that post 08/05/24 rally could be choppy and peak sometime in mid – September 2024. What’s happened so far has been a very sharp rally that could end inContinue reading “Buy the Rumor – Sell the News – 8/22/24”
Relentless Stock Rally – 08/21/24
The near vertical rally of the S&P 500 (SPX) continues. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The only significant change on an hourly basis is the RSI significant bearish divergence AT THE 08/21/24 peak. The big problem from an Elliott wave perspective are the very shallow declines,Continue reading “Relentless Stock Rally – 08/21/24”
Approaching Price and Time Zones – 08/16/24
On 08/16/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) came within 4.19 points of completing a presumed Inverse Expanding Flat correction. This pattern could be complete in the next three trading days. The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action from the all-time high made on 07/16/24. The 08/15/24 blog “S&P 500 –Continue reading “Approaching Price and Time Zones – 08/16/24”
Super Bearish Message from Gold and Silver
The 07/21/214 blog “Bearish Message from Gold and Silver” noted considerable evidence that both precious metals could soon begin a multi-week decline. Since then, Gold (XAUUSD) has exceeded its mid – July 2024 peak, while Silver (XAGUSD) continues to lag on the upside. A severe downward shift for both metals could be imminent. The weeklyContinue reading “Super Bearish Message from Gold and Silver”
S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/15/24
The S&P 500 is pushing through chart resistance in the low 5,500 area and short -term momentum is still bullish. Short – Term Elliott wave analysis could provide a road map to near -term action. The one- hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates short-term momentum. On 08/15/24 the one – hour RSI pushedContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/15/24”
Breaking Through the Ceiling – 08/14/24
The 08/10/24 blog “S&P 500 – Short – Term Resistance” illustrated strong resistance in the S&P 500 (SPX) area of 5,390 to 5,397. Also noted “A move above 5,400 could quickly propel the SPX up to the low 5,500 area”. On 08/13/24 the SPX did move above 5,400 and is now close to the nextContinue reading “Breaking Through the Ceiling – 08/14/24”
S&P 500 – Short – Term Resistance – 08/09/24
Recent sentiment and momentum evidence suggest the S&P 500 (SPX) could rally into mid – September 2024. Fibonacci analysis indicates an important barrier the bulls need to overcome. First a look at short -term momentum. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates some interesting clues. The BigCharts.com Slow Stochastic is very effective in catchingContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Resistance – 08/09/24”
Support Areas for S&P 500 – August 2024
Volume Profile analysis indicates where the S&P 500 could find support during the month of August 2024. Volume Profile puts market volume on a vertical axis which illustrate where volume is relative to price. The wider the volume bar the greater the potential support/resistance. The widest volume bar is called “Point of Control” (POC). TheContinue reading “Support Areas for S&P 500 – August 2024”
U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 08/02/24
Yield/rate for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury bonds could make an important bottom late August to early September 2024. The 02/01/24 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 02/01/24” illustrated that a short-term rally of U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) could be complete, and the next phase downContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 08/02/24”
Four Dimension Trading 