Crude Oil is seasonally bearish into December, the current decline could continue for several weeks. The weekly Crude Oil – continuous next contract chart (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term view. Crude Oil could be drawn down to a Fibonacci .618 retracement of the April 2020 to March 2022 bull market.Continue reading “Crude Oil Trending Down – 09/27/24”
Category Archives: Momentum
Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24
A characteristic of the major U.S. stock market peaks in 2000, 2007, 2022 was that at the final top only one of the three main U.S. stock was making a new high. On 09/26/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) a made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite. DuringContinue reading “Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24”
Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24
Trendline and momentum indicators imply long-term rates are in a bull market. The daily CBOE 30- year Treasury Yield (TYX) courtesy of Trading View updates the action. TYX has broken above the declining trendline connecting the 08/08/24 to 09/03/24 peaks. Daily RSI is well below the overbought level which begins at 70.00. MACD lines areContinue reading “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24”
Long-Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 09/20/24
The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an extended Elliott five wave pattern from the October 2022 bottom. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The move up from October 2022 to January 2023 is a series of one’s and two’s which is the basing pattern for a long and powerfulContinue reading “Long-Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 09/20/24”
The Case for Rising U.S. Interest Rates
After almost a year of anticipation the U.S. FOMC lowered short-term interest rates by a half of a percent. Happy days are here again! Are they? From just before the announcement longer – term U.S. interest rates have been rising. If the trend continues it could be detrimental to the U.S. economy. The weekly chartContinue reading “The Case for Rising U.S. Interest Rates”
Buy the Rumor Buy the News
After the 09/18/24 U.S – FOMC announcement U.S stocks rallied then reversed and the three main U.S stock indices ended the session near the lows of the day. It looked like a classic example of “buy the rumor sell the news”. On 09/19/24 U.S. stock bulls other plans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chartContinue reading “Buy the Rumor Buy the News”
Gold Topping Process – Part Two – 09/12/24
The 09/05//24 blog “Gold Topping Process – 09/05/24” noted “Gold in U.S. dollars could soon make a new all – time high in the area of 2,540 to 2,550”. Today 09/12/24 Gold in U.S. dollars (XAUUSD) made a new all-time high at 2.560.16. The weekly Gold chart courtesy of Trading View updates the long-term action.Continue reading “Gold Topping Process – Part Two – 09/12/24”
U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24
The 08/04/24 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis” illustrated price and time targets for the U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX). Weekly Fibonacci time analysis targeted the first week of September 2024 for a potential turn. Daily Fibonacci time analysis targeted 08/30/24 for a possible turn date.Continue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24”
Downside Rollover of the S&P 500 – September 2024
The 09/01/24 blog “Dow Jones Industrial Average – Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships- August 2024” noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could decline after Labor Day. Immediately after Labor Day most U.S. stock indices began to fall. Momentum indicators imply this could be the beginning of a significant drop. The weekly S&P 500 (SPX)Continue reading “Downside Rollover of the S&P 500 – September 2024”
Gold Topping Process – 09/05/24
Gold in U.S. dollars could soon make a significant peak. The 08/25/24 blog “Gold Update – 08/23/24 noted. “If Gold can move above its current all-time high set on 08/20/24 the rally may not last very long or go very high.” On 09/05/24 Gold in U.S. dollars (XAUUSD) appears to be poised to move aboveContinue reading “Gold Topping Process – 09/05/24”
Four Dimension Trading 