On 10/31/24 both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced sharp declines; the drop could be heralding a bear market. The weekly BTCUSD chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its long-term momentum. During the last week of October 2024 BTCUSD may have completed a double top vs. its March 2024 peak. Because the secondContinue reading “S&P 500 and Bitcoin Relationship”
Category Archives: Momentum
Nasdaq Pinnacle
On 10/30/24 the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made a very lonely all-time high. It’s peak was not confirmed the other two main U.S. stock indices, S&P 500, and the Dow Industrial Average. The sub-index Nasdaq 100 also failed to reach a new high. And amazingly none of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks that have been the drivingContinue reading “Nasdaq Pinnacle”
The Birth of a Bull Market?
The 09/06/24 blog “U.S. Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24” had these comments. “The other factor that could contribute to TYX trending lower is the U.S. FOMC interest rate decision on 09/18/24. It’s widely expected that they will cut short-term interest rates by at least .25 basis points, perhaps more. This could be a classic caseContinue reading “The Birth of a Bull Market?”
U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 10/11/24
A web of Fibonacci time cycles indicate that the S&P 500 (SPX) could make a significant turn on or near 10/11/24. Price has risen into the time zone implying a top could form. Price is not the only determining factor to discover potential tops or bottoms. Evidence from sentiment and momentum indicators is needed toContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 10/11/24”
October Eleventh Connection
On 10/11/90 the S&P 500 (SPX) ended a three-month 21% decline. Seventeen – years later on 10/11/07 the SPX completed a five-year bull market. Seventeen years after the 2007 peak and a Fibonacci thirty – four years after the 1990 bottom the SPX may complete a two-year bull market. The monthly SPX chart courtesy ofContinue reading “October Eleventh Connection”
Complete Disconnect – 10/09/24
The 10/05/24 blog “Analogy Between the S&P 500 in 2007 and 2024” noted. “It’s possible an important 2024 peak could be made within a few trading days of the seventeen – year anniversary of the October 2007 top.” The October 2007 S&P 500 (SPX) peak was on 10/11/07. Today 10/09/24 the SPX made a newContinue reading “Complete Disconnect – 10/09/24”
Rising Tide for Long – Term U.S. Interest Rates
Yields for the 30 – Year U.S. Treasury Bond (TYX) have moved above important chart resistance and could be poised to move higher. The 09/25/24 blog “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24” illustrated that the next TYX resistance point was the 09/03/24 peak at 4.206. Subsequently TYX has moved above that point and has reachedContinue reading “Rising Tide for Long – Term U.S. Interest Rates”
Crude Oil Trending Down – 09/27/24
Crude Oil is seasonally bearish into December, the current decline could continue for several weeks. The weekly Crude Oil – continuous next contract chart (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term view. Crude Oil could be drawn down to a Fibonacci .618 retracement of the April 2020 to March 2022 bull market.Continue reading “Crude Oil Trending Down – 09/27/24”
Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24
A characteristic of the major U.S. stock market peaks in 2000, 2007, 2022 was that at the final top only one of the three main U.S. stock was making a new high. On 09/26/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) a made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite. DuringContinue reading “Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24”
Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24
Trendline and momentum indicators imply long-term rates are in a bull market. The daily CBOE 30- year Treasury Yield (TYX) courtesy of Trading View updates the action. TYX has broken above the declining trendline connecting the 08/08/24 to 09/03/24 peaks. Daily RSI is well below the overbought level which begins at 70.00. MACD lines areContinue reading “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24”
Four Dimension Trading 