Mark Rivest

Time Cycle Turn – Late November 2023

The 08/03/23 blog “Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy” illustrated an extremely precise Fibonacci time cycle targeting an S&P 500 (SPX) turn on 07/27/23. The SPX 10/13/22 to 07/27/23 rally exactly matched the SPX 01/04/22 to 10/13/22 decline. This precision is very rare, there’s usually leeway around Fibonacci time cycle turns. There could be another FibonacciContinue reading “Time Cycle Turn – Late November 2023”

VIX Makes a New 2023 Low – 11/24/23.

The shorten U.S. stock market session after the Thanksgiving day holiday is usually dull and non-eventful. This year something different happened, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) made a new 2023 low setting up the possibility for a VIX topping signal. The VIX topping signal was noted in the 07/22/23 blog “Momentum and Sentiment Evidence –Continue reading “VIX Makes a New 2023 Low – 11/24/23.”

Potential Stock Rally Climax – 11/22/23

The relentless U.S. stock rally that began on 10/27/23 could be in the climax phase. The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the long-term view. Both weekly Slow Stochastic lines have reached the overbought zone above 80%, implying a top could come soon. However, weekly MACD has a bullish lines cross hinting atContinue reading “Potential Stock Rally Climax – 11/22/23”

Crude Oil Update – 11/20/23

The Crude Oil rally that began on 11/16/23 continued today 11/20/23. The daily Crude Oil continuous contract chart (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View shows what happened. In addition to bullish line crosses for RSI and Stochastic there was also a break above the declining trendline from 10/20/23. Traders exited 50% of a half position ofContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 11/20/23”

Technology Stock Blow Off Top?

Most of the gains in the main U.S. stock indices since the 10/27/23 bottom can be attributed to the Technology sector. The manic move up in tech stocks could be the terminal phase of the bull market that began in October 2022. The daily chart for SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology (XLK) courtesy ofContinue reading “Technology Stock Blow Off Top?”

Crude Oil Update – 11/17/23

On 11/16/23 Crude Oil appears to have made an intermediate degree bottom. The daily Crude Oil futures continuous contract (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View shows the progress of its decline since 09/28/23. The decline counts as a five – wave Elliott Impulse pattern. There’s a bullish MACD – Histogram divergence. RSI has moved above itsContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 11/17/23”

S&P 500 – Alternate and Prime Elliott Wave Counts

There are two paths the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. Late November 2023 could be an important time zone. The 11/05/23 blog “Sentiment and Momentum Readings for U.S. Stocks – October 2023” noted that the bottom made on 10/27/23 lacked the evidence for a multi-month rally and further stated “Bulls needContinue reading “S&P 500 – Alternate and Prime Elliott Wave Counts”

Near – Term S&P 500 Momentum

Today 11/15/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) continued its relentless rally in what appears to be a still developing Elliott wave impulse pattern.The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates two – external momentum indicators. The RSI has reached 68.28, the overbought zone starts at 70.00, and so far there’s no momentum divergence. MACD –Continue reading “Near – Term S&P 500 Momentum”

Marginal Death Cross and Rally

In March 2022 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had a “Death Cross” and in the same day made a secondary bottom. On 11/13/23 the DJIA had a marginal “Death Cross” and made a minor bottom. Today, 11/14/23 there was a massive rally. The daily DJIA chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the action. Todays giantContinue reading “Marginal Death Cross and Rally”

U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23

In recent months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield/rate and the U.S. stock market. Rates rise stocks fall. The U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) is now at a crossroad. What happens next week could determine the near -term course for U.S. stocks. The 09/21/23 blog “Upside TargetContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 11/10/23”