Mark Rivest

Manic Bounce – 01/10/24

The 01/06/24 blog “Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 500 – 01/04/24” illustrated S&P 500 (SPX) bullish momentum divergences that implied a bounce and noted. “If on 01/08/24 there’s no move below the 01/05/24 low, the bounce is probably developing”. On 01/08/24 the SPX opened above the 01/05/24 low. The subsequent SPX bounceContinue reading “Manic Bounce – 01/10/24”

U.S. Treasury Yield and S&P 500 – Relationship

For several months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. 30- year Treasury yields (TYX) and the S&P 500 (SPX). The relationship is in effect as of early 2024. Most in the investment community are probably focused on the FOMC interest rate decisions in regard to the direction of U.S. stocks. In 2024 it couldContinue reading “U.S. Treasury Yield and S&P 500 – Relationship”

Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 – 01/05/24

The prior blog noted the S&P 500 (SPX) could find support near the 4,550 area. The intraday SPX – Elliott intraday wave count and momentum indicators suggest a brief bounce could develop. The SPX – 15 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View zooms in on the Elliott wave count from the 12/28/23 high. NoteContinue reading “Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 – 01/05/24”

First Support for the S&P 500

“Volume Profile” and Fibonacci retracements estimates the first S&P 500 (SPX) support zone. “Volume Profile” analysis has volume on a vertical scale and matches the volume with price action. The largest volume cluster is called “Point of Control” (POC) which could be support/resistance for price. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates theContinue reading “First Support for the S&P 500”

Intermediate – Rule of the Majority Sell Signal

On January 2, 2024 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made a new post 10/27/23 rally high unconfirmed by the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC). This bearish non confirmation is additional evidence that U.S. stocks may have begun at least an intermediate decline. When one of the three main U.S. stock indices;Continue reading ” Intermediate – Rule of the Majority Sell Signal”

Trading at the Cusp of a New Year – 2024

The phenomenon of markets changing direction near a new year was examined in the 12/29/21 blog “Market Turns Near the Turn of a New Year” and noted. “Occasionally markets could have a turn near a new year. The most logical reason for this phenomenon is to defer taxes on profits into the next year. AnotherContinue reading “Trading at the Cusp of a New Year – 2024”

Amazing Fibonacci Calculations – December 2023

Momentum and Fibonacci evidence indicates U.S stocks may have made at least an intermediate top. After the 12/20/23 micro crash in U.S. stocks it appeared that an intermediate peak could be in place. Incredibly all three of the main U.S. stock indices continued to rally and moved above their respective pre micro crash highs. TheContinue reading “Amazing Fibonacci Calculations – December 2023”

U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 12/28/23

An intermediate bottom for 30 – year U.S. Treasury Yields could be in place. The weekly CBOE 30 YR Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long- term Elliott wave count. The TYX move up from March 2020 to October 2023 appears to be a completed Elliott wave – Impulse pattern. Continue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 12/28/23”

Psychological Signposts – December 2023

On rare occasions markets have events that could be called “Psychological Signposts”. These events indicate extreme bullish/bearish sentiment near the end of significant market movements. A classic example of a Psychological Signpost happened in Gold during 1999. During that year some mutual funds focusing on Gold Mining companies closed due to lack of investor demand. Continue reading “Psychological Signposts – December 2023”

S&P 500 – Upside Target for 12/22/23 – Part Two

On 12/21/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) had retraced a Fibonacci .618 of the prior days micro crash. Late trading day momentum signaled the SPX could continue to rally and possibly peak in the 4,758 to 4,762 area. Also noted that if that resistance zone was broken, the SPX could rally to just below its 12/20/23Continue reading “S&P 500 – Upside Target for 12/22/23 – Part Two”