Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Nasdaq 100 – the New Downside Leader

Throughout the 2024 U.S. stock rally the Nasdaq Composite and its sub index Nasdaq 100 (NDX) were the upside leaders.  Since their respective all-time highs things have been different. The performance of the three main U.S. stock indices and NDX from their all-time highs to their recent decline bottoms are as follows. Dow Jones IndustrialContinue reading “Nasdaq 100 – the New Downside Leader”

Rotation Within the U.S. Stock Market

On July 11, 2024 there was a large move up in U.S. small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 (RUT) stock index.  Correspondingly on the same day there was a large drop  in technology stocks.   Prior to July 11, 2024 technology stocks were the main sector pushing U.S. stocks higher, small caps significantlyContinue reading “Rotation Within the U.S. Stock Market”

Long-Term S&P 500 – Momentum – 07/25/24

Signals from weekly momentum indicators imply more downside action for the S&P 500 (SPX). The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows the long – term action. Weekly Stochastic has a bearish line cross and the lower line has entered the neutral zone. RSI has moved below its moving average line and has alsoContinue reading “Long-Term S&P 500 – Momentum – 07/25/24”

Short- Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Analysis – 7/24/24

The easiest way to understand Elliott wave theory is to view markets or stocks in segments. Currently the  most important S&P 500 (SPX) segment is the 04/19/24 to 07/16/24 rally.  The consequences of the recent decline could provide directional clues for the remainder of 2024.  The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates theContinue reading “Short- Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Analysis – 7/24/24”

Bearish Message from Gold and Silver

Recent action from Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) suggests they both may have begun multi – week declines. The 06/30/24 blog “Gold – Point & Figure Analysis – 06/28/24” illustrated that Gold had important support at 2,277.43.  Subsequently Gold rallied and made a new all-time high. The weekly Gold (XAUUSD) chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “Bearish Message from Gold and Silver”

  Examination of S&P 500 – July Tops

Since 1998 there have been seven significant S&P 500 (SPX) tops.  What happened after these peaks could be a guide for the near future. Each of the seven peaks subsequently had declines greater than 7%. They are as follows: 1998 –  07/20/98 to 10/08/98 – decline 22.50%. 1999 – 07/19/99 to 10/18/99 – decline 13.40%.Continue reading ”  Examination of S&P 500 – July Tops”

Comparisons of the S&P 500 in 2018 and 2024

In early 2018 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a blow off top.   Mid-2024 could be a repeat of that spectacular peak. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what happened from late 2017 to early 2018. In the final 37 – trading days of the bull run  – late 2017 to early 2018Continue reading “Comparisons of the S&P 500 in 2018 and 2024”

Russell 2000 – Long -Term Elliott Wave Count – 07/12/24.

The recent Russell 2000 (RUT) upsurge could soon end. The weekly RUT chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term Elliott wave count. The best Elliott wave count for the November 2021 to October 2023 decline is a Single Zigzag corrective pattern.  Note that the mid portion of the bear market labeled Intermediate wave (B)Continue reading “Russell 2000 – Long -Term Elliott Wave Count – 07/12/24.”

    In the Zone and Overbought

The 07/08/24 blog “Major S&P 500 – Fibonacci Resistance” noted long – term resistance at 5,615.63.  On 07/11/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) high was 5,642.45 within leeway of the bullseye target. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term action. The bullseye target of 5,615.63 was calculated by taking a Fibonacci .382Continue reading ”    In the Zone and Overbought”